After taking a rough beat on my first published play, I am back for redemption with another under involving the Oakland Athletics. Lets see how they find a way to screw this up.
Last Week
We took a bad beat last week when Jose Bautista went deep on the last out of the first five innings to make our under 4.5 a loss in the game started by Brooks and Hutchison. The full-game ended up going under, which is always frustrating. But when you do this as a career, its paramount not to dwell on anything. I personally took an entire day off.
This Week
We are going to be taking the under 8.5 (-120) in tonight’s match between the Baltimore Orioles and Oakland Athletics. The starting pitchers for this game are Bassitt and Gonzalez. In all honesty, I am still getting new to making write-ups, so I apologize for my perhaps seemingly lean article. I promise that I am making an effort to improve the quality of each one (I am sure that gives you a ton of confidence in this pick, but trust me):
I have the true line of this game set at 7.5, +105 to the under. This means that I project us to have a bit less than a full run edge on the line that is currently available at the time that I am posting this article (5Dimes). As we progress later into the season, not only do we have more information on each pitcher, but we also have more information on how they are perceived. Bassitt has put up some decent numbers so far, posting a 2.48 ERA. Whenever a no-name comes up, especially when its with a bottom-dweller, people are always looking for the regression to hit. And thats perfectly fine, as it factors in to the mantra of betting according to the difference between the true and perceived numbers.
I do believe that Bassitt is a competent pitcher. By no means do I have him out to be a career 3.00 ERA starter, but I believe somewhere oscillating around 3.50 can be expected. The impending regression that the public seems to be awaiting adds some value to the under, as in my opinion, he is not as far away from his eventual mean as people make him out to be.
His counterpart, Miguel Gonzalez, is having a bad season (4.45 ERA). A career mid-3.00 pitcher, Gonzalez has not done anything to warrant standing out in an otherwise bland Orioles rotation. I do not think he is as bad as he has played so far this season, and will begin to move towards his career numbers a bit more as we head down the closing stretch of the season. Backed by a starting nine that is heavy in the middle and light everywhere else, I believe Gonzalez will turn in a great pitching performance backed by no run support.
Record
I will be keeping track of my record on the season at the end of each post. Last week we risked 1.00 units on the first five innings under 4.5 between the Blue Jays and the Athletics. That lost at +100 odds, so we start off 0-1-0 on Frostbet for -1.00 units.
All of my picks are always free. I post the ones that I deem ‘tailable’. Since full-time sportsbetting has a lot to do with which number you get, its often difficult for me to suggest betting on something if the number is already gone by the time that I lock my own plays in. I will only play the ones that I believe you will get a significant enough edge on when you end up seeing it. The same goes for these articles.