Picks Archives - Frostbet

Aug 25

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Rival’s MLB unders for August 25th, 2015

By Rival | Baseball, Picks, Sportsbetting | No Comments

It has been a while since I have posted a pick on Frostbet. I am working my way to being a more active contributor. We picked up a win in our last appearance, bringing my record on this site to 1-1-0 for a complete break-even of +/- 0 units. I have two MLB unders that I would like to share with everyone.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds (BEST BET)

Our play on this game will be the under 8 at -115. This is our best bet for today. I will be risking $2,300 to profit $2,000 (2.3 units / 2.0 units). I have taken the line from BetOnline.

This is a very confident play. For anyone who has followed me on Twitter for a while, you will know that my plays are rarely higher than 1-unit. I made an exception to that earlier this week when we picked up a 3-unit win on Tampa Bay. That required two 9th-inning runs which was a little too-close (I actually went to sleep out of frustration early, and did not check the score for an entire day. Seriously, I am not even kidding, look at my Tweet history…)

The new acquisitions to the Dodgers have not performed well, Wood included. He has conceded at least 3 runs in each of his starts, failing to go very deep in games. Since joining Los Angeles, his ERA has risen from 3.65 to 3.79. Despite giving up many runs, he has not conceded a significant amount of hits. This leads me to believe that Wood is pitching much better than his perception would indicate.

Los Angeles’ bats have been very quiet since getting no-hit by Mike Fiers in Houston over the weekend. The acquisition of Chase Utley made the most expensive team in baseball a lot more expensive. As the season progresses, I believe LA’s offense will improve to the form they displayed earlier this season, including Utley. Does that take away from some of the value on tonight’s under? Sure. But I have not mentioned the pitcher he is opposing.

I always love backing a guy who is pitching in his first few starts, especially for a team that is out of contention. The advantage is more or less in the favor of the pitcher. Lamb has conceded 5 (8 hits) and 3 (9 hits) runs in his first two starts, respectively. One of those was against the very same Dodgers that he faces tonight. It is meaningless to try to take information from a small sample size, and I would make a fool out of myself if I did. All I know is that Lamb pitched much better than the results of the first two starts would suggest.

I believe the true total of this game should be 6.5, with a -120 price to the over. Do to the significant margin between my true-spread, and the perceived odds set by the sportsbook, I have elected to make this a two-unit play.

Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers

Our second play of the day will be the under 9 at -115. I will be risking $1,115 to profit $1,000 (1.15 units / 1.00 units). I have taken the line from BetOnline.

I would venture to assume that no one in their right mind wants to bet the under on this game. The total has jumped up an entire run over the past hour. I waited on it as long as I possibly could, but for the sake of the article I need to get it out on time. That is one of the struggles of providing profitable gambling advice, you get handcuffed sometimes.

Both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Texas Rangers have been red hot. For some reason no one seems to want to talk about the fact that the Rangers have snuck into a playoff position. Someone needs to mention it… seriously.

Buehrle had his shortest start of the season last outing, where he only lasted 16 outs against the Angels.

Although being quiet about it, Buehrle has admitted that he had been struggling with a minor injury. This information was released when his start against the Athletics was swapped with Dickey, who has no problem going on days with short-rest. As well as getting a day off yesterday, the short outing adds a ton of value to supporting the Blue Jays’ pitcher, either through the under or a side. When an older pitcher concedes a lot of runs, people believe regression is finally about to hit hard. On top of this, the short outing could potentially have given Mark enough time to recover from his shoulder issue. I believe he will put up another great start tonight.

As for Holland, he looked brilliant in his return from injury. You can be sure that the Rangers do not want to force anything, so he will likely not be seen deep into the seventh inning if all things go right. After crushing the Detroit Tigers in the prior series, their above-average bullpen is well-rested to take the baton. I have the true total for this game set at 7.5, with a -125 price to the over. It was a tough decision to keep it a one-unit play, but in the end there is a smaller confidence here than with the other under, so I believe this is the best way to spread it out.

Aug 15

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Rival’s Best Bet for August 15th, 2015

By Rival | Baseball, Picks, Sportsbetting | No Comments

After taking a rough beat on my first published play, I am back for redemption with another under involving the Oakland Athletics. Lets see how they find a way to screw this up.

Last Week

We took a bad beat last week when Jose Bautista went deep on the last out of the first five innings to make our under 4.5 a loss in the game started by Brooks and Hutchison. The full-game ended up going under, which is always frustrating. But when you do this as a career, its paramount not to dwell on anything. I personally took an entire day off.

This Week

We are going to be taking the under 8.5 (-120) in tonight’s match between the Baltimore Orioles and Oakland Athletics. The starting pitchers for this game are Bassitt and Gonzalez. In all honesty, I am still getting new to making write-ups, so I apologize for my perhaps seemingly lean article. I promise that I am making an effort to improve the quality of each one (I am sure that gives you a ton of confidence in this pick, but trust me):

I have the true line of this game set at 7.5, +105 to the under. This means that I project us to have a bit less than a full run edge on the line that is currently available at the time that I am posting this article (5Dimes). As we progress later into the season, not only do we have more information on each pitcher, but we also have more information on how they are perceived. Bassitt has put up some decent numbers so far, posting a 2.48 ERA. Whenever a no-name comes up, especially when its with a bottom-dweller, people are always looking for the regression to hit. And thats perfectly fine, as it factors in to the mantra of betting according to the difference between the true and perceived numbers.

I do believe that Bassitt is a competent pitcher. By no means do I have him out to be a career 3.00 ERA starter, but I believe somewhere oscillating around 3.50 can be expected. The impending regression that the public seems to be awaiting adds some value to the under, as in my opinion, he is not as far away from his eventual mean as people make him out to be.

His counterpart, Miguel Gonzalez, is having a bad season (4.45 ERA). A career mid-3.00 pitcher, Gonzalez has not done anything to warrant standing out in an otherwise bland Orioles rotation. I do not think he is as bad as he has played so far this season, and will begin to move towards his career numbers a bit more as we head down the closing stretch of the season. Backed by a starting nine that is heavy in the middle and light everywhere else, I believe Gonzalez will turn in a great pitching performance backed by no run support.

Record

I will be keeping track of my record on the season at the end of each post. Last week we risked 1.00 units on the first five innings under 4.5 between the Blue Jays and the Athletics. That lost at +100 odds, so we start off 0-1-0 on Frostbet for -1.00 units.

All of my picks are always free. I post the ones that I deem ‘tailable’. Since full-time sportsbetting has a lot to do with which number you get, its often difficult for me to suggest betting on something if the number is already gone by the time that I lock my own plays in. I will only play the ones that I believe you will get a significant enough edge on when you end up seeing it. The same goes for these articles.

Aug 11

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Rival’s MLB Best Best for August 11th, 2015

By Rival | Picks | 4 Comments

With a full slate of baseball series starting tonight, there is one first-five inning bet that stands out to me between the Oakland Athletics and Toronto Blue Jays. As this is my first post on Frostbet, my site-wide record is 0-0-0. We will keep track of it as we go along.

At the time of posting, the best line available for all users is on 5Dimes. We will be taking the under 4.5 (+100) for the first five innings at the Rogers Center. We will be taking this for one unit, to win one unit.

Drew Hutchison has been very weak this season. He does have better home numbers than on the road by a significant margin, but in general he has been terrible this season. He had a distinct home/away split last season, in the opposite direction: He was a shut-down pitcher on the road, and a gas-can at Rogers Center. Overall, no one is expecting him to be a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher. His 10-2 record is fraudulent. I could probably be 10-2 with the Blue Jays scoring double-digit runs per game for me each night.

Kendall Graveman has been trending down lately, posting an 3.96 ERA over his last 7 starts, while holding a 3.50 ERA over the last 15. Given the fact that he is about to face the team that drafted him, AKA the most dynamic offense in baseball, in one of the biggest hitter-friendly parks in the league, there is reason to see why sportsbooks would favor the over in a high first-five total.

Toronto just defeated the Yankees in an intense series, and they have them again right after Oakland. With a day off yesterday for both clubs, this is the perfect trap series for the Jays. Look for them to come out flat.

As for electing to take the under 4.5 instead of the Athletics on the moneyline, I believe there is more value. I have the first-five total being set at 3.5, with -125 to the over. The way that I have mapped the game indicates that there is nearly a full run edge between 5Dimes odds, and what I believe they would really be if it was set based on probabilty. Its not often that I see an edge this big, which is why I am going to recommend taking the under 4.5 for one unit.

While I have a bit of time, this is my first post on Frostbet. I am going to be contributing write-ups every few days. I am a professional sportsbettor, and post my best plays on my Twitter handle @FrostRival. I do not sell picks, I just do not have time to post every single bet I make. And in most cases, sometimes the lines are gone by the time that I get my action down.

Jul 26

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Gold Cup Finals Pick

By Arjan | Picks, Soccer, Sportsbetting | No Comments

It may not have been the match-up that we were hoping for, but that does not mean there is not significant betting value in the Gold Cup finals. Underdog Jamaica square-off against one of the tournament powerhouses in Mexico at 7:30 PM eastern. Mexico are -110 favorites, their smallest line of the tournament. For a team that has yet to cover a game against a team that was not depleted due to Visa issues, many square bettors have become frustrated with the disappointing efforts shown by the Mexican side. But should we follow that in the final game of the summer?

Perception Analysis

Whenever I analyze the odds of a game, the first thing that must be examined is how the game is perceived by the general sports-bettor. In most cases this tournament, there has been an overwhelming support for the Mexican squad that were one of the tournament favorites before it began. After they destroyed Cuba (who, as previously stated, were missing all of their key pieces due to a Visa hold-up entering the United States), they failed to cover every spread that oddsmakers hung on them. These spreads got smaller and smaller, leading to more people supporting them since it “looked so good”. Yeah, how did that work out?

One thing to understand is that in a tournament like the Gold Cup which is not as popular as the other mainstream International tournaments we see during the soccer season, the people who watch the final will generally be the same people who have followed the tournament since the beginning. Perhaps if the host United States were involved, this would be a different discussion. But the people who will be laying money on this game are likely people who have seen Mexico turn in disappointment after disappointment leading up to this spot. People don’t forget, contributing to the fact that they are only -110 favorites to start.

The Underdog

We also cannot forget to factor in the fact that this is the finals. Teams will generally play a more defensive game in this spot. This naturally increases the probability of seeing a draw, and also favors Jamaica. In most situations, it will always suit the underdog to play in a lower scoring game. The effort that Jamaica turned in against the United States in the semi-finals is a perfect example of this.

Jamaica have been one of the better teams in the Gold Cup so far. They entered the tournament with minimal expectations, and have not lost yet. They turned in a draw against Costa Rica, defeated Canada with a late goal in injury time, and knocked off El Salvador to complete a fantastic group stage. The important thing to note is that they were very defensively sound, which was the major concern with them entering the Gold Cup. The two goals conceded against Costa Rica were not surprising, as Jamaica bought-in to their typical high-speed pace that they have been playing at since qualifying for the World Cup in 2014. The only other goal that they let by was against the United States. When you are a +900 underdog and still find a way to win the match, I think we can let it slide.

The Favorite

As stated in the perception section, Mexico have been an absolute disappointment so far this tournament. After a gimme of a game against the depleted Cuban side, they went on to concede a clean-sheet to Guatemala (what?), concede four goals to Trinidad (what?), fail to score a goal in regulation time against a high-paced offense-first Costa Rica squad (what?), and could not score an active-play goal against a red-carded Panama team in 120 minutes (WHAT?). Seriously, they have been terrible. And people know this.

The Bet

I highly advise taking Mexico to win the match (in regulation, for you noobs who do not follow the sport) at -110.

This is hardly a square pick given the way they have played throughout the tournament. Oddsmakers considered this, along with the fact that it is the finals, when giving them 50% implied odds to win in the first 90 minutes. I project that the true odds of this game should see the Mexican side at around -150 on the moneyline. A poor tournament contributes to lifting them to -110, giving 40 cents of value. Poor performances are a good thing for great teams. It forces them to make changes, as their previous tactics have not worked out. Mexico have enough offensive creativity to modify their game-plan to find something that will be more effective against Jamaica. There is a saying about the bully; you never know how they will react once they are met with resistance. Mexico have faced that throughout the entire tournament.

You can also examine this from the standpoint of the underdog. Jamaica have put in a great tournament, but in order to turn in all of these great defensive efforts against a lot of high-powered offenses, a ton of energy has to have been expended. They will be fairly exhausted against a more well-conditioned Mexican side.

The Conclusion

Take Mexico ML (-110) against Jamaica for the Gold Cup Finals on July 26th, 2015 at 7:30 PM eastern.

Picks

Rival’s MLB unders for August 25th, 2015