It has been a while since I have posted a pick on Frostbet. I am working my way to being a more active contributor. We picked up a win in our last appearance, bringing my record on this site to 1-1-0 for a complete break-even of +/- 0 units. I have two MLB unders that I would like to share with everyone.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds (BEST BET)
Our play on this game will be the under 8 at -115. This is our best bet for today. I will be risking $2,300 to profit $2,000 (2.3 units / 2.0 units). I have taken the line from BetOnline.
This is a very confident play. For anyone who has followed me on Twitter for a while, you will know that my plays are rarely higher than 1-unit. I made an exception to that earlier this week when we picked up a 3-unit win on Tampa Bay. That required two 9th-inning runs which was a little too-close (I actually went to sleep out of frustration early, and did not check the score for an entire day. Seriously, I am not even kidding, look at my Tweet history…)
The new acquisitions to the Dodgers have not performed well, Wood included. He has conceded at least 3 runs in each of his starts, failing to go very deep in games. Since joining Los Angeles, his ERA has risen from 3.65 to 3.79. Despite giving up many runs, he has not conceded a significant amount of hits. This leads me to believe that Wood is pitching much better than his perception would indicate.
Los Angeles’ bats have been very quiet since getting no-hit by Mike Fiers in Houston over the weekend. The acquisition of Chase Utley made the most expensive team in baseball a lot more expensive. As the season progresses, I believe LA’s offense will improve to the form they displayed earlier this season, including Utley. Does that take away from some of the value on tonight’s under? Sure. But I have not mentioned the pitcher he is opposing.
I always love backing a guy who is pitching in his first few starts, especially for a team that is out of contention. The advantage is more or less in the favor of the pitcher. Lamb has conceded 5 (8 hits) and 3 (9 hits) runs in his first two starts, respectively. One of those was against the very same Dodgers that he faces tonight. It is meaningless to try to take information from a small sample size, and I would make a fool out of myself if I did. All I know is that Lamb pitched much better than the results of the first two starts would suggest.
I believe the true total of this game should be 6.5, with a -120 price to the over. Do to the significant margin between my true-spread, and the perceived odds set by the sportsbook, I have elected to make this a two-unit play.
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers
Our second play of the day will be the under 9 at -115. I will be risking $1,115 to profit $1,000 (1.15 units / 1.00 units). I have taken the line from BetOnline.
I would venture to assume that no one in their right mind wants to bet the under on this game. The total has jumped up an entire run over the past hour. I waited on it as long as I possibly could, but for the sake of the article I need to get it out on time. That is one of the struggles of providing profitable gambling advice, you get handcuffed sometimes.
Both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Texas Rangers have been red hot. For some reason no one seems to want to talk about the fact that the Rangers have snuck into a playoff position. Someone needs to mention it… seriously.
Buehrle had his shortest start of the season last outing, where he only lasted 16 outs against the Angels.
Although being quiet about it, Buehrle has admitted that he had been struggling with a minor injury. This information was released when his start against the Athletics was swapped with Dickey, who has no problem going on days with short-rest. As well as getting a day off yesterday, the short outing adds a ton of value to supporting the Blue Jays’ pitcher, either through the under or a side. When an older pitcher concedes a lot of runs, people believe regression is finally about to hit hard. On top of this, the short outing could potentially have given Mark enough time to recover from his shoulder issue. I believe he will put up another great start tonight.
As for Holland, he looked brilliant in his return from injury. You can be sure that the Rangers do not want to force anything, so he will likely not be seen deep into the seventh inning if all things go right. After crushing the Detroit Tigers in the prior series, their above-average bullpen is well-rested to take the baton. I have the true total for this game set at 7.5, with a -125 price to the over. It was a tough decision to keep it a one-unit play, but in the end there is a smaller confidence here than with the other under, so I believe this is the best way to spread it out.
It has been a while since we checked in on Major League Baseball. Lets take a look at the updated odds for each team to win their division, league pennant, and World Series, and analyze some of the predictions we made earlier on this season.
Division Odds
We will be taking all of our lines from Bet365. They provide a fair price on every game, and take a significant amount of action at high-limits. This gives us an accurate reflection of the current betting market.
The Royals in the AL central are already a done-deal, turning up at -125000. We do not need to talk about them.
Teams that were looking to have ran away with their division are not looking so hot anymore. The Texas Rangers (+380), Toronto Blue Jays (-130), and San Francisco Giants (+175) are have slowly crept their way up the standings. In our previous article, I advised purchasing pennant futures on the Blue Jays, Mets, Giants, and Pirates. All of which have moved in the right direction since those wagers. This is apparent based on their current division odds.
I believe the Blue Jays will eventually beat the Yankees to claim the AL east. Both teams play 7 more games against each other. It is possible that the return of Michael Pineda to the now-six man rotation will rejuvenate New York, but with an unclear time-table for Mark Teixeira’s return, and a roster that is bound to regress to the mean, I do not believe it will be enough. A -130 price for them to overcome their 0.5 games-back deficit is a gift that should otherwise be priced below -160. The Blue Jays have been destroying everyone in their path on a 18-4 run, and to be completely honest, they have been under-performing. Troy Tulowitzki has been terrible since coming over from Colorado, barely putting up a .200 batting average. He will not continue that for the rest of the season. Josh Donaldson is as good as he appears to be, so I would not expect any significant regression on any stat markets besides home-runs. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, the two “old guys” on this new-look roster, are finally playing up to their potential. How about Ben Revere, who lead the National League in hits last season who has only now begun to be a productive player for his new team. And we cannot forget about Devon Travis and Marcus Stroman, who are both probable to return before the end of the regular season. Yeah, exactly.
The Dodgers are something else. For the first time in history a team has surpassed the $300 million dollar luxury tax mark. And they suck. Right after acquiring Chase Utley, they find themselves no-hit by Mike Fiers. I believe the Dodgers will prove to do the opposite of the Yankees down the closing stretch of the season, and they will finally start playing to their true potential. They will run away with the division, and the Giants will come up just short. Its difficult to advise betting on a -240, especially given their recent form. Overall, I believe this line is set very close to the true-line, and staying away would be very advisable.
Not one person has said a thing about the Texas Rangers. Even after they acquired Cole Hamels, no one wanted to talk about them. Well here they are, you do not really have a choice anymore. I was tempted to throw something about the Rangers into the last article about pennant odds. I felt as though they would pull a comeback more often than their odds suggested, and that they would match up well against any team come the post-season. This was before the Hamels deal, and even if it weren’t, I would probably still be too much of a coward to include it. But now I am the one looking like a fool.
They are not a bad team. A lot of people have trouble looking season-to-season. Last year they were awful, and most individuals have not forgotten that. The truth is that they did not have a rotation last year, and most of their star players were either injured (Fielder) or in massive slumps (Shoo, Beltre). While they are still missing two of their best pitchers (Darvish, Holland), they are still making up an insane amount of ground in the standings, which they continued to do yesterday against Randy Wolf and the Tigers. As much as I am sitting here waiting for the Houston Astros to regress to the terrible team that they are, I unfortunately believe it will not happen during the regular season. I am not sure the Rangers will hang on to the Wild Card spot that they moved into yesterday, let alone make a serious challenge for the division. Thus I advise staying away from their very-tempting +380 series line.
Pennant Odds
I probably should have waited for this section of the article to circle-jerk myself for making four great pennant predictions, but I couldn’t wait. Its called premature ejaculation, and the prostitute that I cried in front of for two hours last night says its perfectly normal.
The Royals and Blue Jays sit as +275 co-favorites atop the American League at the start of play today. Division-leader Yankees are +400, and the Astros are +450. I stand by my initial prediction that I believe the AL east will win the pennant this year. I do not think the Orioles have the necessary rotation to keep competing with the Angels, Rangers, and Blue Jays/Yankees for one of the two Wild Card spots. Is it worth purchasing the Yankees at +400? I believe we are at the cut-off point of it being worth-it, which generally means that you are scratching at straws, or whatever that stupid expression is.
(EDIT: Grasping at straws. Still stupid)
I believe the best advise to give is to stay away from American League pennant odds altogether. I find it difficult to take the Royals as a co-favorite, and would rather pay +275 for Toronto IF they were firmly ahead in their division. While I stated that I believe they will win by a large margin, nothing is for certain. Spend your money elsewhere.
In terms of the National League, our interest into the Mets (+1200 to +350), Pirates (+850 to +500), and Giants (+1200 to +1000) have all trended in the right direction. While its getting to the point where we can safely assume that the Mets and Pirates will make the playoffs (barring another epic Nationals end-of-season run, which will happen now that I wrote this, sorry New Yorkers) we need to predict how well they will do in post-season play. The Pirates do not have the rotation to keep up with other teams, plain and simple. Cole is a fantastic pitcher, but it ends right there. Liriano is due for some regression, which has already started to hit him hard over the last few starts. After that, who do you have? Locke? Happ? It is an absolute disaster. Unless you have a line-up like Toronto that can make up for certain rotation weaknesses, you are not going to go far enough. If you are holding on to a Pirates ticket, its time to think about how you will hedge it once they reach the playoffs.
The Mets have the rotation, and now they have the line-up. Do we buy? Absolutely not. If you did not get in on the +1200, then I would probably advise staying away. They are lower than they should be. Regardless of how well they are playing, I believe there is still a much bigger margin between them and the Pirates and Dodgers. We can say what we want about the recent performance of the most expensive team in baseball, but they are all-around a better team than the Mets. Avoid any steam-chasing here.
In short, avoid betting on any pennant lines. It is too late in the season to get a significant edge.
World Series Odds
Cardinals, Royals, and Blue Jays are now all +550 co-favorites to win the World Series. This is followed by the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees, all +800 runners-up. I believe if the Dodgers end up playing as good as they can, they will be in the World Series. The reason why I advise against purchasing their pennant odds instead is because if they reach the level they need to play at to defeat the Cardinals, they will certainly have enough to win it all. Consider a play on them at +800 while they are in the midst of their current slump.
For the American League, you probably know which team I am going to pick given how much I have fawned over their recent additions. The Blue Jays at +550 to take it all is still very much worth it. If you can get an exact-match up line this late in the season, you cannot go wrong by picking the Dodgers defeating the Blue Jays in the final game of the season. Thats where my current prediction lies.
If you have read any of my past work, then you probably already know what my stance on trends are. They are fucking stupid. The only thing posting a trend does is admit that you are a losing sportsbettor. This applies to even the most seemingly-relevant information, such as the bare basics of last-ten ATS and over/under streaks. Its all useless; if you are not placing your bets based on the number, you are wasting your time. So when I see people talk about the Good Will Hunting curse, it makes me see red (and I am referring to blood, not sox).
The Trend
Since the release of Good Will Hunting, the Red Sox had gone 0-15 on Ben Affleck’s birthday (which is today, August 15th).
Who gives a shit? Seriously, out of all the useless trends in the world, this one is the most ridiculous one. And the most pathetic part about it is that there are people who have started to factor this in to their capping. Thats right, people are risking real dollars fading the Red Sox once this trend because known for whatever reason. I began hearing it circle around during August 2013, where Boston made fools of themselves giving up a little-league home-run to Toronto outfielder Rajai Davis on their way to another loss.
August 15th, 2015
If I told you the Red Sox conceded 10 runs when facing Felix Hernandez, you would probably assume that the streak continued and that this article was a waste of time. Boston, however, unloaded 22 runs on the Mariners, tagging their ace for 10 of them. The Good Will Hunting curse has ended, and the trend can finally go to sleep. Right?
I would like to think that come next August 14th I will not be seeing anyone mention this on any of the popular sportsbetting message boards, but the next best thing from a 15-0 trend is, you guessed it, at 15-1 trend. Fish will be fish until the day they die.
And you probably think I am kidding about people betting money on this. I’m not. I do not regularly read messages boards anymore, but it only took me a few moments to find someone on one talking about it on one of the most popular ones. I am sure the fact that one of the best pitcher’s in the American League starting against a gas can helped make consenting to stupidity that much easier.
Why All Trends are Stupid
I have written a lot about this already, and I am sure I will do so many more times in the future. Trends are worthless, and should never be used for any reason other than potentially accessing public perception if the trend is common knowledge (and even at that, I still could not bring myself to recommend it). The first reason why trends are stupid is that for every trend that you find that supports the play you want to make, you could probably find five of them that go against it. If you found out that the Denver Broncos are 10-0-0 ATS over the last ten seasons on the fourth game of the season, you may also find that they are 0-10-0 in Monday away games, and 1-9-0 when facing a division rival after winning by less than one point. Are you simply going to ignore these trends because they somehow have less value than the one you found? Here is the answer; all of them are valueless.
The second reason, which is the most important one in my eyes, is that it is not conducive to proper sportsbetting technique. Professional gamblers make a living off sportsbetting by accessing the margin between the true and perceived spread, and betting according to their estimation of its magnitude. Its simple as that. If you see the Patriots are -7.5 favorites, and you believe that the true spread of the game (the one that would give you the closest ATS record to .500 if simulated an infinite amount of times) was 5.5, then you have no business betting on the Patriots. Even if they were 50-0-0 against the spread in their last 50 games, and were 300-0-0 against the spread in their last 300 games on Sunday, you have no excuse for not betting against them today.
Trends are part of the fantasy realm of sports. Everyone loves a good storyline, and talking about how the Red Sox have not won on Ben Affleck’s birthday since the release of Good Will Hunting makes for a fun discussion. But it is important to separate that side of your sports mind from the one you use to place your bets. If you get caught up with something as insignificant as a trend, you will deviate from the correct handicapping method previously discussed. And believe me, I would not be stressing this point so forcefully if people did not do this on a regular basis.
This will be a recurring theme throughout the history of this website. New people will stop by every so often to read an article or two, and I want to make sure that as long as they take one thing away from their experience with Frostbet, its that trends are fucking stupid.
After taking a rough beat on my first published play, I am back for redemption with another under involving the Oakland Athletics. Lets see how they find a way to screw this up.
Last Week
We took a bad beat last week when Jose Bautista went deep on the last out of the first five innings to make our under 4.5 a loss in the game started by Brooks and Hutchison. The full-game ended up going under, which is always frustrating. But when you do this as a career, its paramount not to dwell on anything. I personally took an entire day off.
This Week
We are going to be taking the under 8.5 (-120) in tonight’s match between the Baltimore Orioles and Oakland Athletics. The starting pitchers for this game are Bassitt and Gonzalez. In all honesty, I am still getting new to making write-ups, so I apologize for my perhaps seemingly lean article. I promise that I am making an effort to improve the quality of each one (I am sure that gives you a ton of confidence in this pick, but trust me):
I have the true line of this game set at 7.5, +105 to the under. This means that I project us to have a bit less than a full run edge on the line that is currently available at the time that I am posting this article (5Dimes). As we progress later into the season, not only do we have more information on each pitcher, but we also have more information on how they are perceived. Bassitt has put up some decent numbers so far, posting a 2.48 ERA. Whenever a no-name comes up, especially when its with a bottom-dweller, people are always looking for the regression to hit. And thats perfectly fine, as it factors in to the mantra of betting according to the difference between the true and perceived numbers.
I do believe that Bassitt is a competent pitcher. By no means do I have him out to be a career 3.00 ERA starter, but I believe somewhere oscillating around 3.50 can be expected. The impending regression that the public seems to be awaiting adds some value to the under, as in my opinion, he is not as far away from his eventual mean as people make him out to be.
His counterpart, Miguel Gonzalez, is having a bad season (4.45 ERA). A career mid-3.00 pitcher, Gonzalez has not done anything to warrant standing out in an otherwise bland Orioles rotation. I do not think he is as bad as he has played so far this season, and will begin to move towards his career numbers a bit more as we head down the closing stretch of the season. Backed by a starting nine that is heavy in the middle and light everywhere else, I believe Gonzalez will turn in a great pitching performance backed by no run support.
Record
I will be keeping track of my record on the season at the end of each post. Last week we risked 1.00 units on the first five innings under 4.5 between the Blue Jays and the Athletics. That lost at +100 odds, so we start off 0-1-0 on Frostbet for -1.00 units.
All of my picks are always free. I post the ones that I deem ‘tailable’. Since full-time sportsbetting has a lot to do with which number you get, its often difficult for me to suggest betting on something if the number is already gone by the time that I lock my own plays in. I will only play the ones that I believe you will get a significant enough edge on when you end up seeing it. The same goes for these articles.
People hate betting unders. Its a fact. A Harvard research paper indicated that bad beats on the under take up 22% more neurons in your brain than bad beats on the over. I also made that up.
But its true if you think about it. The reason why unders are so brutal is because if you are going to lose them, you will generally lose it at the end of the game since statistically most totals in any sport are decided in the closing third of a match. You have been sitting there sweating for punts, double-plays, and saves for two and a half hours, and dammit, you want to be rewarded for it.
But garbage-time touchdowns, empty-net goals, and extra inning fireworks sometimes have other plans for us.
The Match
The New York Yankees and Cleveland Indians were set to begin the first game of a three-game set. The odds across the board were consistent, having the match at a total of 7 with slight favor to the under at -115. The game started off with the Indians scoring in consecutive innings off highly-rated Yankee prospect Luis Severino. Things got quiet after that, and unders backers looked to be smooth sailing to a victory until the Bombers tied it up in the 8th.
Alright, three runs to spare. It would take a grand-slam from the Indians, or a big inning from the Yankees to lose this late in the game, right? Wrong. Always wrong, this is gambling and if you think you are allowed to win ever, you are wrong. New York took the lead in the 10th with two runs, followed by a sac-fly and RBI single from the Indians in the bottom of the frame to bring the game over the total. And to make matters worse, the game went on for another six innings just to rub it in the faces of under bettors.
The Reactions
The best part about any bad-beat article is seeing the reactions!
This poor bastard had the Red Sox under as well. Thats brutal.
For the first time in the 30-team era, all fifteen MLB home teams won. For once in your life you wish you took a moment to lock in the most degenerate and square combination of games ever, right? Well someone in Australia actually did it.
The Parlay
Alright, time to stop lying. He only parlayed 14 of the 15 teams. Sue me, it would have taken up too much space in the title to specify that. No seriously, sue me. Call your lawyer right now, I dare you.
An Australian bookmaker (Sportsbet.com.au) revealed that one of their punters (bettors, for all of you Americans) had parlayed 14 of the home-teams yesterday. He converted $5 into $7,000.
Incase you are wondering, those are +140,000 odds (or 1400/1). Not bad. Why he didn’t throw in the fifteenth home team is beyond me. He probably had some bad experience with whatever team that was in the past, and did not want them to disrupt the Year of the Square. There were no afternoon games, so that had to be the only explanation. For those of you who are curious, the full 15-legger would have came out to around +300,000 odds (or 3000/1).
Lets Remember…
Of course, everyone wants to dream about hitting the big parlay, and having a ton of money on it to boot. The thing that we need to take away from this report is that its more fun to read about other people winning them, than it is to spend a ton of money trying to be that person. Unless you find a way to parlay correlated events (which is something I will have multiple articles written about in the coming months), than its always a waste to do so. The sportsbook will win around $30 for every $100 that you stake on parlays throughout your career. Let it be.
1400/1 odds are great, but this is the first time in history that this has happened. Do not waste money chasing a repeat. Tomorrow will be the first time in history that a home team wins on August 12th, 2015. Think about that…
I hate to say that we told you so… but… we kinda told you so. With the possibility of losing his job at the end of the season if the Blue Jays missed the playoffs for another season, Alex Anthopoulos was very active, bringing in five players which are all improvements at their given position (and in more than one case, SIGNIFICANT improvements). Lets see how these acquisitions changed their pennant odds, which we suggested buying at +1200 before the deadline approached.
The Upgrades
The Blue Jays shocked the world when they acquired Rockies short-stop Troy Tulowitzki days ago. The team that lead the league in offense by a large margin was not ready to stand pat on that side of the ball. Regarded as the best hitter at his position, Tulowitzki brought a significant upgrade over Jose Reyes who went the other way (along with some highly-regarded prospects).
In the trade, Toronto also acquired relief pitcher LaTroy Hawkins. The oldest active player in the major leagues, the veteran says he is retiring at the end of the season. Many individuals, especially those who have had their Rockies tickets ripped to shreds by one of his bad games, probably view this as a downgrade to whatever the Blue Jays have in their bullpen. Its actually a significant upgrade. Probably what I would classify as a Moneyball move. More in the direction of the film, as they portray Billy Beane’s plan through acquiring players that no one wants for meaningless reasons. Just because LaTroy Hawkins is really, really old, does not mean that he is not an improvement over a below-average Jays pen. He can still reach 94 on the gun, and has put up great numbers despite pitching at the league’s premier hitter’s ballpark. Do not sleep on this acquisition.
After stunning the world, GM Alex Anthopoulos was not finished. He went against his principles, and acquired a rental player in David Price. While Johnny Cueto was a big name pick-up, no one can argue that Price was the prize of the deadline. The long-time Rays and short-time Tigers pitcher will give the Blue Jays 12 starts this year. They have elected to line him up for a Monday debut, which will give him a start against the Minnesota Twins, and two starts against the New York Yankees in the coming three games. These are two teams that the Blue Jays are chasing to get into the playoffs.
Today, deadline day, did not see the Jays letting off. They made a move to acquire Mark Lowe from the Seattle Mariners. Lowe has only conceded 4 earned runs in 36 innings pitched this season for a 1.00 ERA. Thats pretty good. One thing that we have noticed about relief pitchers is that each one, regardless of how mediocre their career will end up being, will have one outstanding season in them. Pick any pitcher that has a career ERA in the high-3.00s or low-4.00s, and there is a fairly good chance that he had a sub-2.00 season where he was lights out. That season is right now for Lowe. Similar to LaTroy Hawkins, this is definitely not a big-name move (especially compared to the other players Toronto acquired over the past week). However, it improves one of the parts of the team that the Jays needed the most.
Finally, the Jays wrapped up a busy week by acquiring Ben Revere from the Philadelphia Phillies. Leading the entire major leagues last year in hits, Revere is the epitome of a contact-only hitter. He doesn’t walk, and he does not hit for power. Revere has been a consistent singles hitter who always turns in a batting average around .300. He is also very fast, and can play left-field (where the Blue Jays have an enormous hole). He replaces the speed lost with the departure of Jose Reyes, and can be a great lead-off hitter with Devon Travis on the disabled list. He is also a left-handed bat, which is very important in a righty-dominated roster. Reyes was a switch-hitter which gave Toronto some flexibility on both sides of the plate. Revere will restore the half that matters the most.
The Change in Odds
Incase it has not been apparent over the last few articles, I believe that pennant odds are the best representation for comparing deadline acquisitions. While World Series odds may be a bit more interesting, its very hard to project what the eventual match-up will be. With pennant odds, it is much easier to piece together who the potential post-season match-ups are. But to each is own (or whatever the fuck that saying is).
One week ago, I posted an article leading up to the deadline where I said that you should purchase the Toronto Blue Jays pennant futures right away. The odds were at +1200 on Bet365. I said that there was virtually a 0% chance that the Jays would stand pat. With their GM on the hot-seat, it was a certainty that they would make enough moves to bring them to +1000, with a better chance of them crossing the triple-digit barrier.
The surprise acquisition of Troy Tulowitzki immediately brought them to +1100 despite losing a game in the standings. We knew that they would not be done then, as they would likely make another move to address the pitching, either by improving the starting rotation or adding to the bullpen. However, to be fair, I did caution saying that the trade for Tulowitzki was not a win-now rental, as he has five more years of club control. That move might have been enough to secure Alex Anthopoulos’ position with the club, although there are no certainties with Paul Beaston’s contract up as team president. You never know what the new guy will do, and Alex knew this.
Picking up David Price, Mark Lowe, and Ben Revere (along with two games in the standings) caused the Blue Jays odds to plummet. A sharp move from +1100 to +600 across the deadline. That is a total of 600 cents since the official “pre-deadline” odds were analyzed nearly a week ago. Thats the beauty of understanding what each team will be doing when the deadline approaches. While no one could say that they predicted Toronto would acquire this many upgrades, a portion of it (without any specific details) could be forecasted.
Is there any remaining value?
Despite having half of the odds that they had last week to win the American League pennant, I would still say that the Blue Jays had value at +600. Its probably a very small amount. I would put the true odds of this line between +500 and +550. The Yankees elected to stand-pat, which was very concerning given that their most reliable pitcher Michael Pineda was placed on the 15-day disabled list with elbow tightness. And we all know what that injury leads to. Expect him to miss more than the two-weeks from the initial diagnosis.
I believe the Blue Jays have a great chance to win the division. The Twins are also in the middle of their imminent regression, so we can be fairly confident that barring any significant injuries Toronto will make the playoffs. I personally would not bet on the Jays at the current price given the fact that I am very stubborn and would not be able to settle for these odds given that they were so much higher a week ago. Its a good habit to have, never chase big moves because you do not want to be left behind.
The Blue Jays will continue to win, and I believe we will see their pennant odds touch +500 before we progress deeper into the season.
Baseball fans who stayed up late (or, you know, live on the west coast) were stunned when Colorado sent SS Troy Tulowitzki and P LaTroy Hawkins to Toronto late last night. We knew the Blue Jays were looking to improve at the deadline, but no one saw this coming.
The Trade
The Blue Jays sent one of their top prospects in Jeff Hoffman, along with Miguel Castro, Jesus Tinoco, and Jose Reyes for who many consider to be the best short-stop in the league, and what facts consider to be the oldest player in the league. The lone Canadian team are leading the league in offensive production, and it is not even close.
They nearly have a 100 run lead over the second-place team in that category. The problem, which is fairly well documented, is that they cannot pitch for shit. Seriously, they are downright terrible in that half of the game, sporting the 8th worst team ERA overall.
It appears to be the consensus opinion that the Blue Jays have lost their mind. But its important to remember how baseball works: It really does not matter where you improve. If an improvement can be made, you should do it if the price is right. Jose Reyes is a diminishing asset. His on-base percentage is plummeting as the months go by, which defeats his signature role as a lead-off hitter. He is also severely inept in the defense category, which has cost the Blue Jays a handful of games since he arrived from Miami.
The Upgrade
There is no denying that Troy Tulowitzki is better than Jose Reyes on both sides of the ball. Even in his current “down year”, Troy’s numbers are far superior to anyone else at the position. One can be quick to note that Tulo has benefited from playing at Coors Field, which is widely regarded as the best hitters ballpark in the major leagues. While this is true, his numbers on the road since becoming a starter in 2007 have been spectacular: HR: 81 (1st among SS) RBI: 269 (2nd among SS) OBP .350 (2nd among SS) SLG %:.472 (1st among SS). So we can squash that argument. And lets not forget that Rogers Stadium normally slots in one or two positions behind the mile high park. And its smaller.
Tulowitzki will surely benefit from the protection he will get from the gauntlet that the Blue Jays roster each night. No one knows where the manager will place him to start off, but there is a chance he may benefit from having Edwin Encarnacion behind him. Lets see how he handles getting better pitches to hit.
And lets not overlook old man Hawkins. While you may have bad memories of him blowing games against you, he has put up consistent numbers throughout the tail-end of his career. Especially at Coors, which is a tough task to ask for. This is a piece of the puzzle for Toronto.
The Odds
The Blue Jays’ odds to win the World Series have dropped 200 cents following the trade, moving from +1200 to +1000 since the last time we checked in. This included losing a series to the Mariners, while the division-leading Yankees have not dropped a beat. Here are the current pennant odds before action begins on July 28th, 2015:
Are the Blue Jays a better team after acquiring Troy Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins? Absolutely. Will +1000 be the best price we will see for the rest of the season? Lets think this over for a minute.
In my previous article I said that Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos would lose his job if they did not make the playoffs this year. That thought allowed us to benefit from locking the Blue Jays pennant bets in early to get a great +1200 price. However, they may not be acquiring anyone else before the deadline passes.
That might be an insane thing to write. But lets look at the facts. Troy Tulowitzki is not a rental. He is signed through 2020, and will be a part of the Blue Jays’ core for years to come. Next season, they are shedding RA Dickey and Mark Buehrle’s massive contracts at the end of the year. They will get back Marcus Stroman from injury, and Aaron Sanchez will be poised to return to the rotation. That quality of pitcher cannot be found at the deadline. Anthopoulos is not a fan of rentals, and he made that apparent in his press conference today welcoming Tulo. If he is going to acquire another pitcher, it will likely be someone who has years left on their contract. Teams are generally not inclined to trade players with term remaining, especially those who are just experiencing a down year in 2015, but plan to rebound right away.
I believe acquiring Tulowitzki will buy Anthopoulos another year, even if the Blue Jays fail to make the playoffs again. This means that if you did not purchase Toronto pennant odds at +1200 when my last article was published, it is probably a good idea to wait until the deadline passes, or the Yankees make a move. If the line moves back to anything above +1100, I would be adamant in saying that there is more value.
Cincinnati ace Johnny Cueto clicked the heels of his Reds slippers together, whispering “There is no place like home”. And poof – just like that, he was in Kansas.
Fuck that was lame. I’m sorry.
The Trade
After a report last night that the Reds were close to trading their star pitcher to the Royals on Saturday but the deal fell through. It appears as though both sides finally saw eye-to-eye, as the deal was put in place this morning. It is not yet known what Cincinnati will get in return for the two-month rental. One thing is for sure, this solves Kansas City’s one main problem.
The Mistake
I can admit when I am wrong.
In my pre-deadline pennant odds article, I said that it would be foolish to invest in the Royals before the deadline came as there was no chance this team would make any significant moves. They needed a starting pitcher, and simply did not have the farm depth to make a trade like that happen. I was very wrong, as they landed the biggest fish on the market. Judging by the fact that the trade happened five days before the non-waiver trade deadline, it appears as though other teams were not even close to matching Kansas’ offer.
Change in Odds
Despite this significant trade, the odds for the Royals to win the American League pennant have not changed drastically. They were +300 at the time that my previous MLB article was written. They split a pair of games against the Astros, and are now +275 to represent this side of baseball in the World Series (for what its worth, they are leading the Astros in the rubber match of the series 4-0, so this number may get a bit lower after play finishes).
Here were the odds before the trade:
And after:
Is it worth jumping on the Royals now that they have solved their biggest problem in acquiring a starting pitcher? I mean, the line has not moved that much – right?
I think it is in everyone’s best interest to stay away.
The Reasoning
I think its fair to say that the Royals will make the playoffs via division win. The Twins are starting to come back to reality (at least I got that prediction right), and the Tigers are still a mess as always. Lets assume they finish with the best record in the American League and end up facing the winner of the Wild Card game. At this point, its looking like the Blue Jays or Astros will occupy that spot.
I am not someone who buys into “they have their number” situations when it comes to teams, but the Astros are pretty damn good against the Royals. This is something that should be considered (to a very, very small degree) when looking at a pennant price of +275. The Blue Jays are also a very tough opponent, who are much better than a Wild Card spot would suggest. While the Royals would be favored against either of these opponents at a price of around -150, I think both cases should be closer to -120.
Next, they will likely be facing the Yankees or the Angels. We are thinking ahead here perhaps to an extreme extent, but I would be selecting the Yankees to advance in this match-up. This means the Royals will have to win series against the Yankees, and Blue Jays/Astros. That is very difficult.
The last remaining issue that the Royals have is their hitting. It has been pretty good… so far. Their core players are all over-performing. The addition of Kendrys Morales has given them a deeper line-up, but he is not exempt from the impending regression each player is going to face down the stretch as they are drawn towards the mean.
The Verdict
While the addition of Johnny Cueto improves the Royals by a large margin, it is still not worth paying the +275 price of admission to attend their pennant show.
Despite being a week away from the trade deadline, many teams have made it clear which side of the market they will be on. One statement from the GM can dramatically shift a team’s odds if it becomes apparent that they will be adding or subtracting players from their roster. Lets take a look at each teams updated pennant odds.
Pre-deadline Pennant Odds
Here are the updated pennant odds for the American and National League. For this article, we have taken the odds from Bet365 as they take a significant amount of action on these markets and are most likely to have an accurate depiction of the market.
National League Pennant Odds
Lets take a look at each league to see if we can identify any value in the current prices. The National League holds a close race between the Cardinals (+250), Dodgers (+260), and Nationals (+300). The front-running St. Louis club has already made a move to improve, acquiring Steve Cishek from the Miami Marlins. Although the former closer of the Fish has had a down year, sporting a 4.50 ERA, this move indicates that the Cardinals are still looking to improve despite their great first-half performance. Even the best teams can get better, and it is important to always remember that.
The Dodgers and Nationals have not made any moves heading into the deadline. Both clubs feature complete starting pitching staffs with a mix of aces on the front, and competent pieces at the back-end. I would not look for either team to make a move for one of the big-name rental starting pitchers on the market. The biggest hole between either of the two teams is on the Dodgers roster. Jimmy Rollins has put together a very sub-par season. After a lengthy career, it is more than likely that he has begun the significant and steep decline that most aging veterans face in the last years of their playing days. Finding a replacement for Rollins would make the Dodgers at +260 a decent bet at this point in the season. Unless any moves are done, I believe there is no value betting on either of these three teams.
The Pirates have already made a move by picking up Aramis Ramirez from the Brewers. Whether this move improves will actually improve the team’s performance remains to be seen. Most fans of the Pittsburgh ball-club believe this is a lateral move, and that he will be a significant improvement over a replacement-level player. Sporting a 1.2 WAR, not only does this move improve the club, but it shows that management has identified that they will need to bring in talent if they are going to challenge the Cardinals for the AL central, or at least hold on to their wild-card spot. The former-and-now-current Pirate said he would be retiring at the end of the season, making this a minimal-risk deal for Pittsburgh. I would consider purchasing the Pirates at +650 before the deadline arrives, as any more moves the team makes (and there will be more moves) will cause this to plummet closer to +575.
When it comes to betting on pennant odds mid-season, you tend to shy away from the favorites to look at the long-shots. Anything can happen when you get into the playoffs. If your long-shot makes the playoffs, there is a good chance you will have value once you get there. This applies to the Giants, Cubs, and Mets, who are the three teams that will compete for the remaining wild-card spot (unless one of the division leaders, or the Pittsburgh pirates, fade away down the stretch). First we must determine the activity of each team at the deadline.
The Cubs and the Mets will be looking to buy. New York is a given; they cannot hit. At all. Its hilarious. The trade-comatose team finally woke up yesterday in acquiring Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson from the Braves. While these players (at least Juan Uribe) are offensive improvements over what the Mets were currently fielding, this is in no way enough to complement one of the best pitching staffs in the game. I have a strong feeling that New York will do something right and trade for Justin Upton, who has been made available by the disappointing Padres. Even that might not be enough, but it would sure as hell add value to a +1200 pennant line. If you believe in management, buy now.
Chicago is one more starting pitcher away from being taken seriously. The shinny off-season moves have improved the team, but it may not be enough to reach the playoffs being stuck in a strong division. With a deep farm system, you can be sure that the finally-above-500 Cubs will be buyers at the deadline. My gut tells me Cueto will land at Wrigley. It would be pointless to bet on both the Mets and Cubs in my opinion, as both will be gunning for the same spot. The truth of the matter is that this year’s July 31st non-waiver trade deadline will be full of suitors for pitchers. The line for batters is a little bit shorter, and I believe the Mets will pull off the better deadline acquisitions this season. Buy them at +1200 along with the Pirates.
The San Francisco Giants are winning in an odd-year. Not sure whats going on there? While the Giants are favorites to win the second Wild Card spot to face the Pirates in a one-game playoff, I would be surprised if they made any deadline moves at all. They are a complete team albeit a few holes in the bullpen. Their team has not changed enough for anyone to believe that they could not do it all again this year. With the return of Hunter Pence and Matt Cain, the Giants have added two key players to their past successes. I believe they will hold-out on making a big-name acquisition come this deadline. Their organization is not about those types of moves anyways. The line on the Giants can only go up as the Mets and Cubs begin an arms race over the next week. If you like the Giants, wait. I am sure you will see something between +1200 and +1300 on August 1st.
American League Pennant Odds
The Kansas City Royals are poised to make a return to the World Series once again, as they are breaking away from the pack in terms of pennant odds. They sit +300 to represent the American League, but do not be fooled – it may be one of the worst investments you could make.
Before we get into the rest of the odds, lets determine which teams are in the mix for making the playoffs. The AL east will likely come down to a race between the Blue Jays and Yankees. I wrote about Toronto in the last baseball article that updated division standings and odds. The Blue Jays GM is in the hot-seat after stringing together a few disappointing seasons. Despite making brilliant acquisitions in Josh Donaldson (trade) and Russell Martin (FA signing), it is all meaningless if they miss the playoffs again. Although it may be a selfish move, the Blue Jays are likely to make a trade for the sake of making a trade. While Blue Jays fans may not like the sound of that because it means they may lose one of their top prospects, the bettors sit back and smile.
The Blue Jays will be acquiring at least one starting pitcher at the deadline. Its virtually impossible to visualize a scenario that states otherwise. They have been rumored to have inquired about the Indians’ starter Carlos Carrasco, which would give them a reliable arm. Moving Aaron Sanchez to the bullpen may fill up the need for a reliever, as he was brilliant in that role last season. Buying Toronto at +1200 before the deadline approaches any more should be a must for all sports-bettors. They will challenge for the division with a lot of games remaining against the Yankees. Worst case scenario, they will steal a wild-card spot from the impending collapse of the Astros or Twins.
This does not mean that the Yankees should be ignored at +480. I believe that the American League will be represented by a team in the AL east, either the Blue Jays or the Yankees in most cases. In the previous article, I hypothesized that the small lead the Yankees have built may lull them into a false sense of security, causing them to stand-pat at the deadline. This has since been busted, as management have been rumored to be calling about a lot of available starting pitchers. The line on both of these AL east teams can only fall as the days go buy, so I would highly consider wagers on both the Yankees +480 and Blue Jays +1200 to win the American League pennant.
Does that mean we should ignore the rest of the teams for betting purposes? The short answer is yes. The Royals need a starting pitcher to complement their great bullpen, and I do not believe they have what it takes in the farm system to make a trade happen. Their offense has been productive, but based on each players prior career stats, a regression to the mean is imminent. The Royals will drop off down the stretch once it is too late to make an impact trade. Avoid them at all costs, they will not be repeating last year’s run.
The other teams to consider are the Angels and Astros. As the days go on, its becoming more likely that the Anaheim side will be taking the division, while the Texas side will be settling for a wild card spot. Regardless of where Houston land, I do not think they will advance past their first task in the post-season, be it a one-game playoff, or a five-game set. The team with one of the lowest batting averages in baseball just keeps winning, until, you know… they don’t. We see stories like this each year. Both the Twins and the Astros will drop off. One of them will likely make the wild-card spot, but not both. Avoid both of them, regardless of how tempting the current prices are.
The Angels are an interesting case. A high-payroll may handcuff them into making a signifiant deal at the deadline. New management may want to avoid taking heat for a move that could end up failing. Not wanting to get pinned for a mistake will likely see the Angels stand-pat at the deadline. Apart from the two flashy starts, their roster is not anything special. I believe the line on them at +500 today is the correct price. Never bet on the correct price, there is no point.
The Tigers have made it clear that they will be selling at the deadline, so lets write them off here. There is still no timetable for Miguel Cabrera’s return, which will make it nearly impossible for management to change their minds about whether they will be taking or receiving phone-calls on July 31st. Avoid them, there will be no miracles here.
Earlier I said that I was very confident the American League would be represented by an eastern team. Two long-shots that cannot be ignored are the Orioles and the Rays. It would be fairly pointless to load-up on the four AL east teams. I would suggest making a pick between Toronto, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay for your American League long-shot. The issue I have with the two latter options is that its not very likely that either team will get better across the deadline. The Orioles keep releasing statements saying that they are going to be buying this week, yet they keep losing… and losing… and losing. At some point, the gap is going to be big enough that only a fool would try to close it. The Orioles pitching staff is not what it use to be, despite being comprised by more or less the same players. A few bright spots in the bullpen are the only stand-out factors for this team. Avoid them.
As for the Rays, I do not think I need to write very much about them. They are tied with the Blue Jays, but will get buried in comparison to the players Toronto will acquire. Tampa Bay is a small-market team that grow their talent within the organization. Expect them to follow the same mantra come the end of the month.
The Verdict
There are four pennant bets that I suggest making at this point in the season. In the National League, I suggest purchasing the Pirates (+650) and Mets (+1200) for one-unit each. In the American League, I suggest purchasing the Yankees (+480) and Blue Jays (+1200) for one-unit each. At the end of the season, I will follow-up to see how well these predictions ended up doing in terms of profit, and the predicted line movement. I believe you will walk away with a profit by making all four of these bets (potentially with some hedging for the two long-shots).
