The all-star break has come and gone. Its time to take a look at the updated division odds for the remaining 2015-16 MLB season.
Current Standings
Lets start off by taking a look at the current division standings at the end of play on June 20th, 2015.
Division Odds
We will go division-by-division. Here are the current odds:
We are going to be examining the odds from Bet365. This is one of our highest rated sports-books. They also take high-limit action, and provide fair odds. This is not a promotion, just assuring you that these are an accurate representation of the current odds across the board.
American League Central
In terms of each division’s leaders, I would say the only true surprise (based on pre-season projections) would be how much of a lead the Royals have. With their post-season run last year, public perception would have the AL central being a close draw between Detroit and Kansas City. With the Tigers abysmal pitching (on the front and back end), they are currently sitting behind the Twins. Minnesota is an interesting situation. The cool thing appears to be waiting around until they fall back to reality. Despite being only 6 games behind the Royals, I do not think there is any value in backing them to win the division.
The Tigers are a small notch behind the Twins with a +750 mark, despite being 10.5 games back of the division leaders. Purchasing them at this price with less than half a season remaining may be as square a decision as they come. My suggestion would be to wait until the trade deadline. Its hard to predict what Tigers management are looking to do over the next week and a half. Its reasonable to draft projections of them selling, buying, or standing pat. If they end up appearing as buyers (not necessarily waiting for a purchase to be made), then I would recommend grabbing the Tigers at anything higher than +700. In the event that they mend the gap during this time, pass and move on. No need to chase lost lines. I am not willing to advise betting on whether or not a team will win make up 10.5 games on top of betting on whether or not they will make reigns to acquire talent at the deadline.
American League East
The AL east has been a major let-down this season on all fronts. No one seems to want to run away with it. Before the season started, everyone was hyping up the Red Sox after their big-name acquisitions in Sandoval, Ramirez, and Porcello. That worked out great.
The Blue Jays are somewhat in the same boat, although there were not many expectations this season after the last two disappointing years. The Rays always seem to make something out of nothing, and despite losing Cobb, Smyly, and Moore (who has since returned but lets be honest, if you are giving up 7 runs a start… are you really back?). The Orioles have taken a major step back from the past few seasons without losing many key pieces.
The Yankees are the only team breaking free from the pack. They are 4.0 – 4.5 games ahead of three of the four trailers. This is a situation where I would recommend placing a wager before the trade deadline, essentially on the Yankees NOT to win the division.
Lets project who is going to do what at the deadline. I would be shocked to see the Rays make a significant move that would impact their end of season win total by more than a win, regardless of how close they are to first place come the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline. Their odds can only get higher as we approach the end of the month. Do not touch them right now.
The Blue Jays and the Orioles are going to be buying at the deadline. Both of these teams, especially Toronto, are more talented right-now than the Yankees. Both teams know that if they want to have a chance at the division, and perhaps even the playoffs, they will need to out-buy the Yankees. When I look at the Blue Jays, I see a general manager who is fearing for his position. Alex Anthopoulos has made a lot of big trades over his tenure, but the team has not performed. Its not unreasonable to believe that his job may be on the line if they miss the playoffs again this year, especially if that comes along with a silent deadline. They will improve.
The bigger the lead the Yankees have come July 31st, the less they will buy. Tanaka has pitched very well, and the injury-addition of Ivan Nova has given New York a decent rotation. Their offense has over-performed so far this season. Considering their older core, they runs-per-game will decline in the second half of the season.
As for the Red Sox, I do not believe they will make much noise. You can expect their players to perform closer to the mean as the season winds down. Whether that is enough to get them the division is not worth laying +750.
My advice for the AL east is to grab futures on the Orioles and Blue Jays. Since they will be buying at the deadline in pretty much any scenario, it would be best to lock it in as early as possible. A split-wager on Toronto or Baltimore winning the division would combine for a +225 price.
At the current odds, a 1-unit wager would break down as 0.472 units on Toronto to win the division (+425) and 0.528 units on Baltimore to win the division (+475). This comes out to a total of 1 unit to win 2.25 units on Toronto or Baltimore to win the AL east.
American League West
A few weeks ago (before Frostbet was launched) I was talking to a friend, suggesting that a split-breakdown on the Astros to not win the AL west would be a great wager. Neither of us listened, and the Astros have now gone from -120 favorites, to +135 second-fiddles. I do not trust the Angels enough to go through with that at the current price. For the reasons stated in the AL east write-up, its always hard to back a team that is leading its division by a small margin going into the deadline because you never know what they will end up doing.
The Astros are going to fade away. Thats a fashionable take, but its going to happen. Relying on the home-run will dry out, and they will not win the division. In terms of betting on the AL west, the only true value lies with the Athletics (and potentially, to a lesser degree, the Rangers). Oakland are not as bad as they appeared in the first half of the season. Their bullpen let them down in many games. While I do not think Moneyball plans to make any buyer moves at the deadline, I would still buy a piece of the +2800 offer.
For the AL west, we will be risking 1 unit to win 28 units on the Oakland Athletics to win the division at +2800.
National League West
Colorado Rockies are winning the NL west.
I am kidding. It was a joke. Relax, please don’t say you will leave me (my wife told me that one already. I laughed and l0st). They are not winning anything.
I am also prepared to write-off the Padres and Diamondbacks. While you can make the case that there is value in betting both of them at the current prices, we need to be realistic and selective in picking our spots. I mean, there is probably value in betting the Phillies at +250,000 to win the NL east. If you bet on them at that price an infinite amount of times in this scenario, you will profit. However, you will also be dead by the time you win your first simulation. The Padres were called the winners of the off-season for the national league after picking up Kemp, Upton, and Kimbrel. And it did not work out.
You can make a case that the Padres will perform much better in the second half of the season and I would believe you. There is just too large of a gap for them to overcome both the Dodgers and the Giants.
Something that does surprise me is the current offer on the Giants at +400. Considering they are only 3.5 games back at the end of play today, and have many games left against the Dodgers (who they have absolutely owned this season), you would think that would make a good bet. The Dodgers under-performed in the first half of the season if you can believe it. And I would argue that the Giants over-performed. I think the line is fair. There is no value, and thus no bet on the NL west.
National League East
The National League east has played out exactly the way most people saw it before the season began. Washington would start slow and break ahead as they always do. Mets would have great pitching and lose every game 1-0 as they always do. Braves and Phillies were written off before the first pitch was thrown. Marlins may be a bit of a disappointment, but I do not think they are many games away from where they thought they would be come the all-star break.
The Mets could easily trade for some hitting at the deadline. Its much easier to acquire that than pitching. And since most buyers at the deadline are looking for pitchers, they could have a fertile market all to themselves. But remember, Its the Mets. The Wilpon family will find a way to mess it up.
Unless they pull their heads out of their asses (or their wallets out of Madoff’s fridge) I do not think they will make a significant move that would warrant betting +400 for them to win the division despite being only 2 games back. In terms of pennant odds, I am listening. But they will not win the division.
National League Central
The Cardinals were looking unstoppable before they walked into Pittsburgh right before the all-star break. They choked that series away, and now the Pirates are only 3.5 games back of the division lead. While I believe the Cardinals are good but not great, I have the same feelings towards the Pirates. As controversial of a thought as it may be, both teams are over achieving this season.
The team that I believe has a lot of value is the Chicago Cubs. Yeah, I just recommended betting on the Cubs.
*Vomit*
Chicago are 8 games back of the lead and in my eyes have the best roster in the division. With a lot of overlapping games amongst the top three teams, a +1800 price is a criminal offense. I advise a 1 unit wager to win 18 units on the Chicago Cubs winning the National League Central.
The Breakdown
Here is a brief list of the wagers that I advised during this article:
Toronto Blue Jays (+475): 0.472 units split
Baltimore Orioles (+425): 0.528 units split
Oakland Athletics (+2800): 1 unit to win 28 units
Chicago Cubs (+1800): 1 unit to win 18 units
It goes without saying that the last two bets will be subject to hedging. You can either follow me on Twitter, or keep a look-out for another article regarding what to do with those bets.