With a full slate of baseball series starting tonight, there is one first-five inning bet that stands out to me between the Oakland Athletics and Toronto Blue Jays. As this is my first post on Frostbet, my site-wide record is 0-0-0. We will keep track of it as we go along.
At the time of posting, the best line available for all users is on 5Dimes. We will be taking the under 4.5 (+100) for the first five innings at the Rogers Center. We will be taking this for one unit, to win one unit.
Drew Hutchison has been very weak this season. He does have better home numbers than on the road by a significant margin, but in general he has been terrible this season. He had a distinct home/away split last season, in the opposite direction: He was a shut-down pitcher on the road, and a gas-can at Rogers Center. Overall, no one is expecting him to be a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher. His 10-2 record is fraudulent. I could probably be 10-2 with the Blue Jays scoring double-digit runs per game for me each night.
Kendall Graveman has been trending down lately, posting an 3.96 ERA over his last 7 starts, while holding a 3.50 ERA over the last 15. Given the fact that he is about to face the team that drafted him, AKA the most dynamic offense in baseball, in one of the biggest hitter-friendly parks in the league, there is reason to see why sportsbooks would favor the over in a high first-five total.
Toronto just defeated the Yankees in an intense series, and they have them again right after Oakland. With a day off yesterday for both clubs, this is the perfect trap series for the Jays. Look for them to come out flat.
As for electing to take the under 4.5 instead of the Athletics on the moneyline, I believe there is more value. I have the first-five total being set at 3.5, with -125 to the over. The way that I have mapped the game indicates that there is nearly a full run edge between 5Dimes odds, and what I believe they would really be if it was set based on probabilty. Its not often that I see an edge this big, which is why I am going to recommend taking the under 4.5 for one unit.
While I have a bit of time, this is my first post on Frostbet. I am going to be contributing write-ups every few days. I am a professional sportsbettor, and post my best plays on my Twitter handle @FrostRival. I do not sell picks, I just do not have time to post every single bet I make. And in most cases, sometimes the lines are gone by the time that I get my action down.
This was brutal. 3 runs from 3 defensive mistakes by Oakland, and we lose on the last out of the first five innings on a home run.
Sorry for anyone who tailed. 0-1-0 (-1 unit). Will keep track of the record on each post. Hope to make a better impression next time.
LOL
First post mush