If you have read any of my past work, then you probably already know what my stance on trends are. They are fucking stupid. The only thing posting a trend does is admit that you are a losing sportsbettor. This applies to even the most seemingly-relevant information, such as the bare basics of last-ten ATS and over/under streaks. Its all useless; if you are not placing your bets based on the number, you are wasting your time. So when I see people talk about the Good Will Hunting curse, it makes me see red (and I am referring to blood, not sox).
The Trend
Since the release of Good Will Hunting, the Red Sox had gone 0-15 on Ben Affleck’s birthday (which is today, August 15th).
Who gives a shit? Seriously, out of all the useless trends in the world, this one is the most ridiculous one. And the most pathetic part about it is that there are people who have started to factor this in to their capping. Thats right, people are risking real dollars fading the Red Sox once this trend because known for whatever reason. I began hearing it circle around during August 2013, where Boston made fools of themselves giving up a little-league home-run to Toronto outfielder Rajai Davis on their way to another loss.
August 15th, 2015
If I told you the Red Sox conceded 10 runs when facing Felix Hernandez, you would probably assume that the streak continued and that this article was a waste of time. Boston, however, unloaded 22 runs on the Mariners, tagging their ace for 10 of them. The Good Will Hunting curse has ended, and the trend can finally go to sleep. Right?
I would like to think that come next August 14th I will not be seeing anyone mention this on any of the popular sportsbetting message boards, but the next best thing from a 15-0 trend is, you guessed it, at 15-1 trend. Fish will be fish until the day they die.
And you probably think I am kidding about people betting money on this. I’m not. I do not regularly read messages boards anymore, but it only took me a few moments to find someone on one talking about it on one of the most popular ones. I am sure the fact that one of the best pitcher’s in the American League starting against a gas can helped make consenting to stupidity that much easier.
Why All Trends are Stupid
I have written a lot about this already, and I am sure I will do so many more times in the future. Trends are worthless, and should never be used for any reason other than potentially accessing public perception if the trend is common knowledge (and even at that, I still could not bring myself to recommend it). The first reason why trends are stupid is that for every trend that you find that supports the play you want to make, you could probably find five of them that go against it. If you found out that the Denver Broncos are 10-0-0 ATS over the last ten seasons on the fourth game of the season, you may also find that they are 0-10-0 in Monday away games, and 1-9-0 when facing a division rival after winning by less than one point. Are you simply going to ignore these trends because they somehow have less value than the one you found? Here is the answer; all of them are valueless.
The second reason, which is the most important one in my eyes, is that it is not conducive to proper sportsbetting technique. Professional gamblers make a living off sportsbetting by accessing the margin between the true and perceived spread, and betting according to their estimation of its magnitude. Its simple as that. If you see the Patriots are -7.5 favorites, and you believe that the true spread of the game (the one that would give you the closest ATS record to .500 if simulated an infinite amount of times) was 5.5, then you have no business betting on the Patriots. Even if they were 50-0-0 against the spread in their last 50 games, and were 300-0-0 against the spread in their last 300 games on Sunday, you have no excuse for not betting against them today.
Trends are part of the fantasy realm of sports. Everyone loves a good storyline, and talking about how the Red Sox have not won on Ben Affleck’s birthday since the release of Good Will Hunting makes for a fun discussion. But it is important to separate that side of your sports mind from the one you use to place your bets. If you get caught up with something as insignificant as a trend, you will deviate from the correct handicapping method previously discussed. And believe me, I would not be stressing this point so forcefully if people did not do this on a regular basis.
This will be a recurring theme throughout the history of this website. New people will stop by every so often to read an article or two, and I want to make sure that as long as they take one thing away from their experience with Frostbet, its that trends are fucking stupid.