Despite being a week away from the trade deadline, many teams have made it clear which side of the market they will be on. One statement from the GM can dramatically shift a team’s odds if it becomes apparent that they will be adding or subtracting players from their roster. Lets take a look at each teams updated pennant odds.
Pre-deadline Pennant Odds
Here are the updated pennant odds for the American and National League. For this article, we have taken the odds from Bet365 as they take a significant amount of action on these markets and are most likely to have an accurate depiction of the market.
National League Pennant Odds
Lets take a look at each league to see if we can identify any value in the current prices. The National League holds a close race between the Cardinals (+250), Dodgers (+260), and Nationals (+300). The front-running St. Louis club has already made a move to improve, acquiring Steve Cishek from the Miami Marlins. Although the former closer of the Fish has had a down year, sporting a 4.50 ERA, this move indicates that the Cardinals are still looking to improve despite their great first-half performance. Even the best teams can get better, and it is important to always remember that.
The Dodgers and Nationals have not made any moves heading into the deadline. Both clubs feature complete starting pitching staffs with a mix of aces on the front, and competent pieces at the back-end. I would not look for either team to make a move for one of the big-name rental starting pitchers on the market. The biggest hole between either of the two teams is on the Dodgers roster. Jimmy Rollins has put together a very sub-par season. After a lengthy career, it is more than likely that he has begun the significant and steep decline that most aging veterans face in the last years of their playing days. Finding a replacement for Rollins would make the Dodgers at +260 a decent bet at this point in the season. Unless any moves are done, I believe there is no value betting on either of these three teams.
The Pirates have already made a move by picking up Aramis Ramirez from the Brewers. Whether this move improves will actually improve the team’s performance remains to be seen. Most fans of the Pittsburgh ball-club believe this is a lateral move, and that he will be a significant improvement over a replacement-level player. Sporting a 1.2 WAR, not only does this move improve the club, but it shows that management has identified that they will need to bring in talent if they are going to challenge the Cardinals for the AL central, or at least hold on to their wild-card spot. The former-and-now-current Pirate said he would be retiring at the end of the season, making this a minimal-risk deal for Pittsburgh. I would consider purchasing the Pirates at +650 before the deadline arrives, as any more moves the team makes (and there will be more moves) will cause this to plummet closer to +575.
When it comes to betting on pennant odds mid-season, you tend to shy away from the favorites to look at the long-shots. Anything can happen when you get into the playoffs. If your long-shot makes the playoffs, there is a good chance you will have value once you get there. This applies to the Giants, Cubs, and Mets, who are the three teams that will compete for the remaining wild-card spot (unless one of the division leaders, or the Pittsburgh pirates, fade away down the stretch). First we must determine the activity of each team at the deadline.
The Cubs and the Mets will be looking to buy. New York is a given; they cannot hit. At all. Its hilarious. The trade-comatose team finally woke up yesterday in acquiring Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson from the Braves. While these players (at least Juan Uribe) are offensive improvements over what the Mets were currently fielding, this is in no way enough to complement one of the best pitching staffs in the game. I have a strong feeling that New York will do something right and trade for Justin Upton, who has been made available by the disappointing Padres. Even that might not be enough, but it would sure as hell add value to a +1200 pennant line. If you believe in management, buy now.
Chicago is one more starting pitcher away from being taken seriously. The shinny off-season moves have improved the team, but it may not be enough to reach the playoffs being stuck in a strong division. With a deep farm system, you can be sure that the finally-above-500 Cubs will be buyers at the deadline. My gut tells me Cueto will land at Wrigley. It would be pointless to bet on both the Mets and Cubs in my opinion, as both will be gunning for the same spot. The truth of the matter is that this year’s July 31st non-waiver trade deadline will be full of suitors for pitchers. The line for batters is a little bit shorter, and I believe the Mets will pull off the better deadline acquisitions this season. Buy them at +1200 along with the Pirates.
The San Francisco Giants are winning in an odd-year. Not sure whats going on there? While the Giants are favorites to win the second Wild Card spot to face the Pirates in a one-game playoff, I would be surprised if they made any deadline moves at all. They are a complete team albeit a few holes in the bullpen. Their team has not changed enough for anyone to believe that they could not do it all again this year. With the return of Hunter Pence and Matt Cain, the Giants have added two key players to their past successes. I believe they will hold-out on making a big-name acquisition come this deadline. Their organization is not about those types of moves anyways. The line on the Giants can only go up as the Mets and Cubs begin an arms race over the next week. If you like the Giants, wait. I am sure you will see something between +1200 and +1300 on August 1st.
American League Pennant Odds
The Kansas City Royals are poised to make a return to the World Series once again, as they are breaking away from the pack in terms of pennant odds. They sit +300 to represent the American League, but do not be fooled – it may be one of the worst investments you could make.
Before we get into the rest of the odds, lets determine which teams are in the mix for making the playoffs. The AL east will likely come down to a race between the Blue Jays and Yankees. I wrote about Toronto in the last baseball article that updated division standings and odds. The Blue Jays GM is in the hot-seat after stringing together a few disappointing seasons. Despite making brilliant acquisitions in Josh Donaldson (trade) and Russell Martin (FA signing), it is all meaningless if they miss the playoffs again. Although it may be a selfish move, the Blue Jays are likely to make a trade for the sake of making a trade. While Blue Jays fans may not like the sound of that because it means they may lose one of their top prospects, the bettors sit back and smile.
The Blue Jays will be acquiring at least one starting pitcher at the deadline. Its virtually impossible to visualize a scenario that states otherwise. They have been rumored to have inquired about the Indians’ starter Carlos Carrasco, which would give them a reliable arm. Moving Aaron Sanchez to the bullpen may fill up the need for a reliever, as he was brilliant in that role last season. Buying Toronto at +1200 before the deadline approaches any more should be a must for all sports-bettors. They will challenge for the division with a lot of games remaining against the Yankees. Worst case scenario, they will steal a wild-card spot from the impending collapse of the Astros or Twins.
This does not mean that the Yankees should be ignored at +480. I believe that the American League will be represented by a team in the AL east, either the Blue Jays or the Yankees in most cases. In the previous article, I hypothesized that the small lead the Yankees have built may lull them into a false sense of security, causing them to stand-pat at the deadline. This has since been busted, as management have been rumored to be calling about a lot of available starting pitchers. The line on both of these AL east teams can only fall as the days go buy, so I would highly consider wagers on both the Yankees +480 and Blue Jays +1200 to win the American League pennant.
Does that mean we should ignore the rest of the teams for betting purposes? The short answer is yes. The Royals need a starting pitcher to complement their great bullpen, and I do not believe they have what it takes in the farm system to make a trade happen. Their offense has been productive, but based on each players prior career stats, a regression to the mean is imminent. The Royals will drop off down the stretch once it is too late to make an impact trade. Avoid them at all costs, they will not be repeating last year’s run.
The other teams to consider are the Angels and Astros. As the days go on, its becoming more likely that the Anaheim side will be taking the division, while the Texas side will be settling for a wild card spot. Regardless of where Houston land, I do not think they will advance past their first task in the post-season, be it a one-game playoff, or a five-game set. The team with one of the lowest batting averages in baseball just keeps winning, until, you know… they don’t. We see stories like this each year. Both the Twins and the Astros will drop off. One of them will likely make the wild-card spot, but not both. Avoid both of them, regardless of how tempting the current prices are.
The Angels are an interesting case. A high-payroll may handcuff them into making a signifiant deal at the deadline. New management may want to avoid taking heat for a move that could end up failing. Not wanting to get pinned for a mistake will likely see the Angels stand-pat at the deadline. Apart from the two flashy starts, their roster is not anything special. I believe the line on them at +500 today is the correct price. Never bet on the correct price, there is no point.
The Tigers have made it clear that they will be selling at the deadline, so lets write them off here. There is still no timetable for Miguel Cabrera’s return, which will make it nearly impossible for management to change their minds about whether they will be taking or receiving phone-calls on July 31st. Avoid them, there will be no miracles here.
Earlier I said that I was very confident the American League would be represented by an eastern team. Two long-shots that cannot be ignored are the Orioles and the Rays. It would be fairly pointless to load-up on the four AL east teams. I would suggest making a pick between Toronto, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay for your American League long-shot. The issue I have with the two latter options is that its not very likely that either team will get better across the deadline. The Orioles keep releasing statements saying that they are going to be buying this week, yet they keep losing… and losing… and losing. At some point, the gap is going to be big enough that only a fool would try to close it. The Orioles pitching staff is not what it use to be, despite being comprised by more or less the same players. A few bright spots in the bullpen are the only stand-out factors for this team. Avoid them.
As for the Rays, I do not think I need to write very much about them. They are tied with the Blue Jays, but will get buried in comparison to the players Toronto will acquire. Tampa Bay is a small-market team that grow their talent within the organization. Expect them to follow the same mantra come the end of the month.
The Verdict
There are four pennant bets that I suggest making at this point in the season. In the National League, I suggest purchasing the Pirates (+650) and Mets (+1200) for one-unit each. In the American League, I suggest purchasing the Yankees (+480) and Blue Jays (+1200) for one-unit each. At the end of the season, I will follow-up to see how well these predictions ended up doing in terms of profit, and the predicted line movement. I believe you will walk away with a profit by making all four of these bets (potentially with some hedging for the two long-shots).