We are just two weeks away from the MLB trade deadline. Three things are certain: Death, taxes, and a GM doing something stupid.

But does it have to be that way?

Which player has the most buy value at the deadline?

We know its going to happen. Someone always does something stupid. Things are going to be interesting this year because where we stand as I am writing this article, there are many teams still in the mix, and not many teams ready to write-off the season.

We analyze sports-betting through the assessment of value. What is the difference between the true price and the actual price? The same criteria should be taken when evaluating players. Which player would be the smartest buy at the deadline?

Lets start off by taking a look at the current wild-card standings:

The teams that we can all agree on that will officially be selling at the deadline are the Phillies, Marlins, Brewers, and Rockies. I am not ready to count out anyone in the American League, including the Oakland Athletics. Seems crazy to say, given that they are nine games back of a wild-card spot, but I predict they will be a great second-half team.

Fans from many teams wonder what the Padres plan to trade away at the deadline. In my honest opinion, I do not think new GM A.J. Preller is going to sell house, if he even sells at all. Its important to remember that he is a new general manager who made a bunch of fancy acquisitions over the summer. Trading away these newly acquired players, most of which still have a bunch of term left on their contracts, would be admittance that he has failed. Chances are he will not want to do that, and knows the team will perform better in coming years. My money is on him not trading anything away.

The last team on the fence is are the Reds. Its safe to say they have been at the heart of every trade rumor in America. While they are technically only 6.5 games back of the wild card spot, its realistic to assume they will not catch up to the likes of the Pirates, Cubs, Mets, and Giants for the two wild card spots. Johnny Cueto and Aroldis Chapman have been two pieces that many teams have been calling about.

I personally do not believe the Reds will trade Chapman. It depends where management views their team over the next few years, but with a line-up of Votto, Phillips, and Frazier, its hard to picture a full rebuild. Chapman is arbitration eligible next season, and I do not believe they are willing to part with him for any realistic offer.

The underrated piece that the Reds have is Mike Leake. When you think of Leake, you envision an average pitcher. You can expect he will end the season with an ERA somewhere between 4.00 and 4.50. That might not seem very appealing, as most teams that are currently in the buyers pool will likely have that quality pitching at the back of their rotation already.

There is a phenomena well known in the betting world regarding Mike Leake: He cannot pitch at home. His numbers at Great American are far worse than his numbers on the road. We generally expect pitchers to be better at home than on the road.

Now lets be fair. Great American has always been one of the top hitter-friendly ball-parks in the league. They rank third overall this year, behind Coors Field (which has always been a joke) and Yankee Stadium (which has the benefit of the DH as an American League team):

Mike Leake’s 2015-16 Campaign

Lets take a look at Leake’s stats through the first half of the 2015-16 season:

Regardless of how crazy your ballpark is, a 5.46 ERA at home and a 2.57 ERA on the road is something worth noting. Here is a thought, if Mike Leake gets traded, he will not have to pitch at Great American any more.

I am not a professional baseball pitcher, so I will not claim to know why Leake has so much trouble pitching at home. But the same home/away splits have been present over the past few years. I believe our sample size is great enough to throw away the chance that this is an anomaly.

The idea of value is important in the world of sports trades, just like it is important in the world of sports-betting. While Mike Leake is by no means a Johnny Cueto, the buy-price is much lower than the true-price. You are paying for a 4.00 ERA pitcher, when you may be getting someone who could potentially perform in the low 3.00s. I think a 3.25 ERA post-trade is a very reasonable projection.

I will follow-up at the end of the season to see how this projection turned out (assuming that Mike Leake is in fact traded). Perhaps I will have a poll to see what Frostbet readers believed the most valuable (key word value) transaction was.