Baseball fans who stayed up late (or, you know, live on the west coast) were stunned when Colorado sent SS Troy Tulowitzki and P LaTroy Hawkins to Toronto late last night. We knew the Blue Jays were looking to improve at the deadline, but no one saw this coming.
The Trade
The Blue Jays sent one of their top prospects in Jeff Hoffman, along with Miguel Castro, Jesus Tinoco, and Jose Reyes for who many consider to be the best short-stop in the league, and what facts consider to be the oldest player in the league. The lone Canadian team are leading the league in offensive production, and it is not even close.
They nearly have a 100 run lead over the second-place team in that category. The problem, which is fairly well documented, is that they cannot pitch for shit. Seriously, they are downright terrible in that half of the game, sporting the 8th worst team ERA overall.
It appears to be the consensus opinion that the Blue Jays have lost their mind. But its important to remember how baseball works: It really does not matter where you improve. If an improvement can be made, you should do it if the price is right. Jose Reyes is a diminishing asset. His on-base percentage is plummeting as the months go by, which defeats his signature role as a lead-off hitter. He is also severely inept in the defense category, which has cost the Blue Jays a handful of games since he arrived from Miami.
The Upgrade
There is no denying that Troy Tulowitzki is better than Jose Reyes on both sides of the ball. Even in his current “down year”, Troy’s numbers are far superior to anyone else at the position. One can be quick to note that Tulo has benefited from playing at Coors Field, which is widely regarded as the best hitters ballpark in the major leagues. While this is true, his numbers on the road since becoming a starter in 2007 have been spectacular: HR: 81 (1st among SS) RBI: 269 (2nd among SS) OBP .350 (2nd among SS) SLG %:.472 (1st among SS). So we can squash that argument. And lets not forget that Rogers Stadium normally slots in one or two positions behind the mile high park. And its smaller.
Tulowitzki will surely benefit from the protection he will get from the gauntlet that the Blue Jays roster each night. No one knows where the manager will place him to start off, but there is a chance he may benefit from having Edwin Encarnacion behind him. Lets see how he handles getting better pitches to hit.
And lets not overlook old man Hawkins. While you may have bad memories of him blowing games against you, he has put up consistent numbers throughout the tail-end of his career. Especially at Coors, which is a tough task to ask for. This is a piece of the puzzle for Toronto.
The Odds
The Blue Jays’ odds to win the World Series have dropped 200 cents following the trade, moving from +1200 to +1000 since the last time we checked in. This included losing a series to the Mariners, while the division-leading Yankees have not dropped a beat. Here are the current pennant odds before action begins on July 28th, 2015:
Are the Blue Jays a better team after acquiring Troy Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins? Absolutely. Will +1000 be the best price we will see for the rest of the season? Lets think this over for a minute.
In my previous article I said that Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos would lose his job if they did not make the playoffs this year. That thought allowed us to benefit from locking the Blue Jays pennant bets in early to get a great +1200 price. However, they may not be acquiring anyone else before the deadline passes.
That might be an insane thing to write. But lets look at the facts. Troy Tulowitzki is not a rental. He is signed through 2020, and will be a part of the Blue Jays’ core for years to come. Next season, they are shedding RA Dickey and Mark Buehrle’s massive contracts at the end of the year. They will get back Marcus Stroman from injury, and Aaron Sanchez will be poised to return to the rotation. That quality of pitcher cannot be found at the deadline. Anthopoulos is not a fan of rentals, and he made that apparent in his press conference today welcoming Tulo. If he is going to acquire another pitcher, it will likely be someone who has years left on their contract. Teams are generally not inclined to trade players with term remaining, especially those who are just experiencing a down year in 2015, but plan to rebound right away.
I believe acquiring Tulowitzki will buy Anthopoulos another year, even if the Blue Jays fail to make the playoffs again. This means that if you did not purchase Toronto pennant odds at +1200 when my last article was published, it is probably a good idea to wait until the deadline passes, or the Yankees make a move. If the line moves back to anything above +1100, I would be adamant in saying that there is more value.
great owrk.
im canadian but not a jays fan by any stretch. they are a fun team to watch but you know what they say about toronto.