In a pre-season game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, star Green Bay Packers wide-receiver Jordy Nelson hobbled off the field after injuring his leg on the first drive. While he walked off the field on his own, NFL insider Ian Rapoport tweeted out that the initial diagnosis was a torn ACL. While they are still awaiting confirmation via MRI, it is safe to assume that the chances of the initial report being confirmed are high.
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An ACL injury would likely take Nelson out of the game for at least six months (with the potential of missing the entire season). But lets be realistic, none of us are doctors, so anything said about this is purely speculation.
How would an injury to Jordy Nelson affect the Green Bay Packers changes of winning the division, conference, and Super-Bowl? At the time of injury, the current lines for the Green Bay Packers were +500 to win the Super Bowl, +320 to win the conference, -300 to win the division, and -610 to make the playoffs. Their win-total was set at 11, -125 to the over. This was captured by SportsInsights immediately following the injury.
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Lets take a look at how things have moved now that a few hours have passed, and sportsbooks have had time to adjust their lines. The most important one of all, the odds to win the Super Bowl, have not changed. They remain runner-up behind the +450 Seahawks at +500.
There has been slight movement towards the under for their win total by 10 cents. The over 11 was -125 before the injury, and is not -115.
Green Bay’s playoff odds have not changed (remains at -610).
Green Bay’s odds to win the NFC North division have also stood-pat, clocking in at -300 before and after the injury.
There are a few ways we can explain the fact that the odds have not moved. The most important one is that no one really knows what happened to Nelson as of yet. The MRI will confirm what we may already know. But generally this does not matter, and bettors will make impulsive decisions without knowing all of the facts.
The lack of movement can be due to the fact that most sportsbooks have taken significant action in favor of Green Bay over the off-season. There will be no need for them to make sudden line changes, as they already have a lot of action on one side.
Finally, it could be due to the fact that Jordy Nelson is not as valuable to the Green Bay Packers as he is perceived to be. There is no doubt that he is a vital piece of their offense when he is playing well, but does this really change much? When you already have the best offense in the league, you can afford to take hits in that department. A lot of Green Bay’s success in the upcoming season will be determined by the quality of their defense. I could catch touchdowns with Aaron Rodgers throwing seeds in my pocket.
What is the best plan of action to take full advantage of the Nelson injury? My guess is waiting as long as possible before backing the Packers. If he is confirmed out for an extended period of time, there will eventually be some wannabe sharps pushing the line down. We will not see significant line movement either way, but Green Bay is still a brilliant team without him, and this could be the perfect opportunity to take advantage of some overreactions.
I will make a follow-up post for pre-season NFL predictions in the coming weeks, where I will explain what we should do with the Packers.
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