Football

Both of the primetime games this week have featured spread drama revolving around field goals, or rather lack-thereof. On Thursday, we saw Josh Scobee’s career with the Pittsburgh Steelers end after he missed two late field-goals which eventually lead to the team’s overtime loss to the Baltimore Ravens (after Justin Tucker nailed one from 54 yards out). After that game, I discussed the importance of shopping for the best line, as there was no excuse for anyone to have bet anything other than Ravens -2 / -2.5 or Steelers +3. Regardless of how much work you put into getting your Sunday Night Cowboys line, you got a swift kick in the nuts. At least you have a five-day work-week to look forward to.

The line on Sunday’s nightcap was 2.5 at the standard betting sites, and 3 / 3.5 at the square ones. Despite the outcome, what I said earlier still stands – there is no reason for anyone to have bet anything other than Saints -2.5 or Cowboys +3 / +3.5… but, damn.

Losses suck, but they are not the worst. The average bettor will suffer hundreds of them per year. The only ones that he or she will remember are demonstrated tonight. At least they make good conversations. With under 5 minutes left in the game, Dallas’ quarterback Brandon Weeden lead a remarkable 89 yard drive, which ended in an unbelievable 4th down touchdown on what would have very well been the last play of the game in most scenarios.

Tied 20-20, Dallas bettors holding onto +3 or +3.5 sat back up in their seats. With just over 2 minutes remaining in regulation, the chance of the game ending in either a regulation/overtime Saints field-goal or an outright Cowboys win were very high. And just for that moment, the biggest mistake was made. Some call it “hope”.

Don’t get use to it. After Brees marched the New Orleans offense down the field with no time-outs, kicker Zach Hocker set up for a short 30-yard game-winner. Only to be distracted by this guy:

 

 

*Boink*…

Off the uprights and back out onto the field. That was the sound of Mr. Chubby pictured above taking your money, Cowboys bettors. He knows it now, every dollar. Think of that while you try to fall asleep tonight.

There goes the 23-20 final, where most people go home happy (including those who needed to rely on a full-field Weeden drive for the push). As soon as it happened you knew what was up. A flip of the coin and a completion later, and it was all over. C.J. Spiller houses it for a 26-20 final, keeping the game under the total but ruining the lives of those brave enough to back a primetime underdog.

My teachers always told me not to do drugs when I was in high-school. What about hope? That shit ruins lives.

If you follow me on Twitter you probably know that I get into arguments with a lot of people regarding the importance of line-shopping. One would think there really is nothing to debate, but there is a corner of the world that believes points do not really matter. Most of these people are individuals who use Bovada as their only sports-betting website, which is a serious problem.

The line on Thursday night’s football game pretty much stayed as expected following Big Ben’s injury. It opened up at 2 and 2.5 on the normal betting sites, and 3 on the square ones. There was a bit of fluctuation between 2.5 and 3 for those that offered the former at some point. I probably do not need to describe what went on in the game (especially if you were a Steelers backer), as two missed field-goals from kicker Josh Scobee set up the game-tying marker in the closing seconds of the game for Baltimore.

But things got much worse than that. Despite having one of the best running backs in the league, the Steelers refused to use his skill-set on two 4th down situations (since they could not count on their kicker in those spots). Baltimore eventually won the game on a 52 yard attempt by Justin Tucker. While Scobee should and will take the majority of the blame, one cannot overlook some of the decision making from Pittsburgh’s coaching staff.

There was absolutely no reason for anyone to be standing with a pushed -3 or a lost +2.5. Getting the best number is really not that hard. I do not need to even open up a line comparison page to know that a square site like Bovada is going to be shaded at least half a point to the public side compared to a site like 5Dimes or BetOnline. You do not even need to keep a running balance at a handful of sites, all you need is two: One square, and one fair. The only time I hound people for using Bovada is when it’s their only site. Someone who uses it to bet on sharp sides (typically underdogs and unders since that’s how things go) knows what they are doing. Every single point matters, regardless of where the number is. But since people are obsessed with “important numbers” like 3 and 7, I thought tonight was a good night to drill it into your skulls. This is just a simple thing you can do to increase your edge in the long run.

The night is still young, but I imagine I will get into a few arguments with Bovada-defenders who believed there was nothing wrong with their -3 tickets.

In a pre-season game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, star Green Bay Packers wide-receiver Jordy Nelson hobbled off the field after injuring his leg on the first drive. While he walked off the field on his own, NFL insider Ian Rapoport tweeted out that the initial diagnosis was a torn ACL. While they are still awaiting confirmation via MRI, it is safe to assume that the chances of the initial report being confirmed are high.

 

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An ACL injury would likely take Nelson out of the game for at least six months (with the potential of missing the entire season). But lets be realistic, none of us are doctors, so anything said about this is purely speculation.

How would an injury to Jordy Nelson affect the Green Bay Packers changes of winning the division, conference, and Super-Bowl? At the time of injury, the current lines for the Green Bay Packers were +500 to win the Super Bowl, +320 to win the conference, -300 to win the division, and -610 to make the playoffs. Their win-total was set at 11, -125 to the over. This was captured by SportsInsights immediately following the injury.

 

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Lets take a look at how things have moved now that a few hours have passed, and sportsbooks have had time to adjust their lines. The most important one of all, the odds to win the Super Bowl, have not changed. They remain runner-up behind the +450 Seahawks at +500.

 

 

There has been slight movement towards the under for their win total by 10 cents. The over 11 was -125 before the injury, and is not -115.

 

 

Green Bay’s playoff odds have not changed (remains at -610).

 

 

Green Bay’s odds to win the NFC North division have also stood-pat, clocking in at -300 before and after the injury.

 

There are a few ways we can explain the fact that the odds have not moved. The most important one is that no one really knows what happened to Nelson as of yet. The MRI will confirm what we may already know. But generally this does not matter, and bettors will make impulsive decisions without knowing all of the facts.

The lack of movement can be due to the fact that most sportsbooks have taken significant action in favor of Green Bay over the off-season. There will be no need for them to make sudden line changes, as they already have a lot of action on one side.

Finally, it could be due to the fact that Jordy Nelson is not as valuable to the Green Bay Packers as he is perceived to be. There is no doubt that he is a vital piece of their offense when he is playing well, but does this really change much? When you already have the best offense in the league, you can afford to take hits in that department. A lot of Green Bay’s success in the upcoming season will be determined by the quality of their defense. I could catch touchdowns with Aaron Rodgers throwing seeds in my pocket.

What is the best plan of action to take full advantage of the Nelson injury? My guess is waiting as long as possible before backing the Packers. If he is confirmed out for an extended period of time, there will eventually be some wannabe sharps pushing the line down. We will not see significant line movement either way, but Green Bay is still a brilliant team without him, and this could be the perfect opportunity to take advantage of some overreactions.

I will make a follow-up post for pre-season NFL predictions in the coming weeks, where I will explain what we should do with the Packers. 
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With football fast approaching, many cannot resist the temptation to bet on pre-season football. If you tell anyone you are doing it, you will be called a degenerate gambler. Now while you are guaranteed to get mocked, is betting on “NFLX”, or any pre-season game for that matter, shunned upon in the world of profitable sportsbetting?

The Big Question

When placing a bet, the one question you need to ask yourself is whether or not the wager you are making is a good bet. The true definition of a good bet is something that would generate a profit if bet an infinite amount of times. In nearly every situation, one side of the bet will do this, while the other side will subsequently net a loss.

We determine what side of a game is the profitable one by deducing what we believe to be the true odds of the match. What you see at your local sportsbook is not derived from math and probabilities, but rather the way the game is perceived by the gambler. The sportsbook wants to ensure that they are guaranteed a small profit regardless of which team wins, thus desiring to attract and equal amount of action to both sides. If they set everything based on probability, they would be at risk more times than not. The bigger the margin between the true odds that you have determined and the perceived odds set by the linemakers, the bigger the edge. Its that simple.

It would be foolish to criticize someone for making a bet that they were confident in saying that it abided by the latter criteria. If I am giving you +101 odds on the literal flip of a coin, you better be taking it.

The Bigger Question

Even if we understand everything said in the prior section, should we still be wagering on pre-season football? We need to ask ourselves if we have enough knowledge about the market to be able to evaluate the edge of an exhibition match. A lot of people who do not know what they are talking about will say that its all about having the “right information”. Lets be realistic, there is no information that you can apply to the full sixty-minutes of a pre-season football match that should be deemed valid. Do not kid yourself. Here is a so-called “Vegas expert” making a fool of himself on Twitter:

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Please tell me more about how your 4th string quarterback projects to match-up with the 232th string wide receiver. I dare you, I double-dare you motherf*cker. I do not think I need to go into much details about him, his TV show should speak for itself (in a bad way). Here is another character who has drawn a lot of controversy over the past year:

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We will get into some of the things Fezzik has done another time. He makes it clear that he believes there is money to be made in pre-season football. Hours later, he followed it up with this complaint:

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That honeymoon lasted longer than my own. F*ck, I’m cheap.

The Verdict

We get some laughs out of watching some of these guys try to come off as experts. The “information” that Steve Stevens has is either a lie or un-applicable. Anyone who tells you that pre-season football success comes from having inside tips are just trying to get inside your wallet. But this does not mean we should dispel the idea of making good pre-season bets.

Like I said in the introduction of this article, you would be a fool to laugh at someone who is making bets on the side of a game that they believe will win if bet an infinite amount of times. The pre-season is a different animal, and if you plan to take it on you should be analyzing it strictly from a perception stand-point. Do not humiliate yourself by trying to determine what the true spread or total of a game should be, but instead access how the masses betting on this game are interpreting it. The oddsmakers do not have any idea what is going on either. To ensure their success, they are playing the man, not the ball. I don’t think thats how that saying goes, but whatever.

Because you are throwing away the part of the handicapping process that involves determining the true spread, its difficult to access the magnitude of your edge. Enough knowledge of the market will allow you to know if you have it, but it is difficult to estimate it to a high degree of precision. With this, I condone betting on pre-season football under two conditions: (I) you place your bets strictly through interpreting how the game is being perceived, and betting accordingly, and (II) using one consistent unit size, preferably one that is half of your traditional wager. There is no such thing as a five-unit bomb in the pre-season. Unit size is determined by magnitude of edge, and only a liar has that information.