Cincinnati ace Johnny Cueto clicked the heels of his Reds slippers together, whispering “There is no place like home”. And poof – just like that, he was in Kansas.
Fuck that was lame. I’m sorry.
The Trade
After a report last night that the Reds were close to trading their star pitcher to the Royals on Saturday but the deal fell through. It appears as though both sides finally saw eye-to-eye, as the deal was put in place this morning. It is not yet known what Cincinnati will get in return for the two-month rental. One thing is for sure, this solves Kansas City’s one main problem.
The Mistake
I can admit when I am wrong.
In my pre-deadline pennant odds article, I said that it would be foolish to invest in the Royals before the deadline came as there was no chance this team would make any significant moves. They needed a starting pitcher, and simply did not have the farm depth to make a trade like that happen. I was very wrong, as they landed the biggest fish on the market. Judging by the fact that the trade happened five days before the non-waiver trade deadline, it appears as though other teams were not even close to matching Kansas’ offer.
Change in Odds
Despite this significant trade, the odds for the Royals to win the American League pennant have not changed drastically. They were +300 at the time that my previous MLB article was written. They split a pair of games against the Astros, and are now +275 to represent this side of baseball in the World Series (for what its worth, they are leading the Astros in the rubber match of the series 4-0, so this number may get a bit lower after play finishes).
Here were the odds before the trade:
And after:
Is it worth jumping on the Royals now that they have solved their biggest problem in acquiring a starting pitcher? I mean, the line has not moved that much – right?
I think it is in everyone’s best interest to stay away.
The Reasoning
I think its fair to say that the Royals will make the playoffs via division win. The Twins are starting to come back to reality (at least I got that prediction right), and the Tigers are still a mess as always. Lets assume they finish with the best record in the American League and end up facing the winner of the Wild Card game. At this point, its looking like the Blue Jays or Astros will occupy that spot.
I am not someone who buys into “they have their number” situations when it comes to teams, but the Astros are pretty damn good against the Royals. This is something that should be considered (to a very, very small degree) when looking at a pennant price of +275. The Blue Jays are also a very tough opponent, who are much better than a Wild Card spot would suggest. While the Royals would be favored against either of these opponents at a price of around -150, I think both cases should be closer to -120.
Next, they will likely be facing the Yankees or the Angels. We are thinking ahead here perhaps to an extreme extent, but I would be selecting the Yankees to advance in this match-up. This means the Royals will have to win series against the Yankees, and Blue Jays/Astros. That is very difficult.
The last remaining issue that the Royals have is their hitting. It has been pretty good… so far. Their core players are all over-performing. The addition of Kendrys Morales has given them a deeper line-up, but he is not exempt from the impending regression each player is going to face down the stretch as they are drawn towards the mean.
The Verdict
While the addition of Johnny Cueto improves the Royals by a large margin, it is still not worth paying the +275 price of admission to attend their pennant show.