It may not have been the match-up that we were hoping for, but that does not mean there is not significant betting value in the Gold Cup finals. Underdog Jamaica square-off against one of the tournament powerhouses in Mexico at 7:30 PM eastern. Mexico are -110 favorites, their smallest line of the tournament. For a team that has yet to cover a game against a team that was not depleted due to Visa issues, many square bettors have become frustrated with the disappointing efforts shown by the Mexican side. But should we follow that in the final game of the summer?
Perception Analysis
Whenever I analyze the odds of a game, the first thing that must be examined is how the game is perceived by the general sports-bettor. In most cases this tournament, there has been an overwhelming support for the Mexican squad that were one of the tournament favorites before it began. After they destroyed Cuba (who, as previously stated, were missing all of their key pieces due to a Visa hold-up entering the United States), they failed to cover every spread that oddsmakers hung on them. These spreads got smaller and smaller, leading to more people supporting them since it “looked so good”. Yeah, how did that work out?
One thing to understand is that in a tournament like the Gold Cup which is not as popular as the other mainstream International tournaments we see during the soccer season, the people who watch the final will generally be the same people who have followed the tournament since the beginning. Perhaps if the host United States were involved, this would be a different discussion. But the people who will be laying money on this game are likely people who have seen Mexico turn in disappointment after disappointment leading up to this spot. People don’t forget, contributing to the fact that they are only -110 favorites to start.
The Underdog
We also cannot forget to factor in the fact that this is the finals. Teams will generally play a more defensive game in this spot. This naturally increases the probability of seeing a draw, and also favors Jamaica. In most situations, it will always suit the underdog to play in a lower scoring game. The effort that Jamaica turned in against the United States in the semi-finals is a perfect example of this.
Jamaica have been one of the better teams in the Gold Cup so far. They entered the tournament with minimal expectations, and have not lost yet. They turned in a draw against Costa Rica, defeated Canada with a late goal in injury time, and knocked off El Salvador to complete a fantastic group stage. The important thing to note is that they were very defensively sound, which was the major concern with them entering the Gold Cup. The two goals conceded against Costa Rica were not surprising, as Jamaica bought-in to their typical high-speed pace that they have been playing at since qualifying for the World Cup in 2014. The only other goal that they let by was against the United States. When you are a +900 underdog and still find a way to win the match, I think we can let it slide.
The Favorite
As stated in the perception section, Mexico have been an absolute disappointment so far this tournament. After a gimme of a game against the depleted Cuban side, they went on to concede a clean-sheet to Guatemala (what?), concede four goals to Trinidad (what?), fail to score a goal in regulation time against a high-paced offense-first Costa Rica squad (what?), and could not score an active-play goal against a red-carded Panama team in 120 minutes (WHAT?). Seriously, they have been terrible. And people know this.
The Bet
I highly advise taking Mexico to win the match (in regulation, for you noobs who do not follow the sport) at -110.
This is hardly a square pick given the way they have played throughout the tournament. Oddsmakers considered this, along with the fact that it is the finals, when giving them 50% implied odds to win in the first 90 minutes. I project that the true odds of this game should see the Mexican side at around -150 on the moneyline. A poor tournament contributes to lifting them to -110, giving 40 cents of value. Poor performances are a good thing for great teams. It forces them to make changes, as their previous tactics have not worked out. Mexico have enough offensive creativity to modify their game-plan to find something that will be more effective against Jamaica. There is a saying about the bully; you never know how they will react once they are met with resistance. Mexico have faced that throughout the entire tournament.
You can also examine this from the standpoint of the underdog. Jamaica have put in a great tournament, but in order to turn in all of these great defensive efforts against a lot of high-powered offenses, a ton of energy has to have been expended. They will be fairly exhausted against a more well-conditioned Mexican side.
The Conclusion
Take Mexico ML (-110) against Jamaica for the Gold Cup Finals on July 26th, 2015 at 7:30 PM eastern.