I hate to say that we told you so… but… we kinda told you so. With the possibility of losing his job at the end of the season if the Blue Jays missed the playoffs for another season, Alex Anthopoulos was very active, bringing in five players which are all improvements at their given position (and in more than one case, SIGNIFICANT improvements). Lets see how these acquisitions changed their pennant odds, which we suggested buying at +1200 before the deadline approached.
The Upgrades
The Blue Jays shocked the world when they acquired Rockies short-stop Troy Tulowitzki days ago. The team that lead the league in offense by a large margin was not ready to stand pat on that side of the ball. Regarded as the best hitter at his position, Tulowitzki brought a significant upgrade over Jose Reyes who went the other way (along with some highly-regarded prospects).
In the trade, Toronto also acquired relief pitcher LaTroy Hawkins. The oldest active player in the major leagues, the veteran says he is retiring at the end of the season. Many individuals, especially those who have had their Rockies tickets ripped to shreds by one of his bad games, probably view this as a downgrade to whatever the Blue Jays have in their bullpen. Its actually a significant upgrade. Probably what I would classify as a Moneyball move. More in the direction of the film, as they portray Billy Beane’s plan through acquiring players that no one wants for meaningless reasons. Just because LaTroy Hawkins is really, really old, does not mean that he is not an improvement over a below-average Jays pen. He can still reach 94 on the gun, and has put up great numbers despite pitching at the league’s premier hitter’s ballpark. Do not sleep on this acquisition.
After stunning the world, GM Alex Anthopoulos was not finished. He went against his principles, and acquired a rental player in David Price. While Johnny Cueto was a big name pick-up, no one can argue that Price was the prize of the deadline. The long-time Rays and short-time Tigers pitcher will give the Blue Jays 12 starts this year. They have elected to line him up for a Monday debut, which will give him a start against the Minnesota Twins, and two starts against the New York Yankees in the coming three games. These are two teams that the Blue Jays are chasing to get into the playoffs.
Today, deadline day, did not see the Jays letting off. They made a move to acquire Mark Lowe from the Seattle Mariners. Lowe has only conceded 4 earned runs in 36 innings pitched this season for a 1.00 ERA. Thats pretty good. One thing that we have noticed about relief pitchers is that each one, regardless of how mediocre their career will end up being, will have one outstanding season in them. Pick any pitcher that has a career ERA in the high-3.00s or low-4.00s, and there is a fairly good chance that he had a sub-2.00 season where he was lights out. That season is right now for Lowe. Similar to LaTroy Hawkins, this is definitely not a big-name move (especially compared to the other players Toronto acquired over the past week). However, it improves one of the parts of the team that the Jays needed the most.
Finally, the Jays wrapped up a busy week by acquiring Ben Revere from the Philadelphia Phillies. Leading the entire major leagues last year in hits, Revere is the epitome of a contact-only hitter. He doesn’t walk, and he does not hit for power. Revere has been a consistent singles hitter who always turns in a batting average around .300. He is also very fast, and can play left-field (where the Blue Jays have an enormous hole). He replaces the speed lost with the departure of Jose Reyes, and can be a great lead-off hitter with Devon Travis on the disabled list. He is also a left-handed bat, which is very important in a righty-dominated roster. Reyes was a switch-hitter which gave Toronto some flexibility on both sides of the plate. Revere will restore the half that matters the most.
The Change in Odds
Incase it has not been apparent over the last few articles, I believe that pennant odds are the best representation for comparing deadline acquisitions. While World Series odds may be a bit more interesting, its very hard to project what the eventual match-up will be. With pennant odds, it is much easier to piece together who the potential post-season match-ups are. But to each is own (or whatever the fuck that saying is).
One week ago, I posted an article leading up to the deadline where I said that you should purchase the Toronto Blue Jays pennant futures right away. The odds were at +1200 on Bet365. I said that there was virtually a 0% chance that the Jays would stand pat. With their GM on the hot-seat, it was a certainty that they would make enough moves to bring them to +1000, with a better chance of them crossing the triple-digit barrier.
The surprise acquisition of Troy Tulowitzki immediately brought them to +1100 despite losing a game in the standings. We knew that they would not be done then, as they would likely make another move to address the pitching, either by improving the starting rotation or adding to the bullpen. However, to be fair, I did caution saying that the trade for Tulowitzki was not a win-now rental, as he has five more years of club control. That move might have been enough to secure Alex Anthopoulos’ position with the club, although there are no certainties with Paul Beaston’s contract up as team president. You never know what the new guy will do, and Alex knew this.
Picking up David Price, Mark Lowe, and Ben Revere (along with two games in the standings) caused the Blue Jays odds to plummet. A sharp move from +1100 to +600 across the deadline. That is a total of 600 cents since the official “pre-deadline” odds were analyzed nearly a week ago. Thats the beauty of understanding what each team will be doing when the deadline approaches. While no one could say that they predicted Toronto would acquire this many upgrades, a portion of it (without any specific details) could be forecasted.
Is there any remaining value?
Despite having half of the odds that they had last week to win the American League pennant, I would still say that the Blue Jays had value at +600. Its probably a very small amount. I would put the true odds of this line between +500 and +550. The Yankees elected to stand-pat, which was very concerning given that their most reliable pitcher Michael Pineda was placed on the 15-day disabled list with elbow tightness. And we all know what that injury leads to. Expect him to miss more than the two-weeks from the initial diagnosis.
I believe the Blue Jays have a great chance to win the division. The Twins are also in the middle of their imminent regression, so we can be fairly confident that barring any significant injuries Toronto will make the playoffs. I personally would not bet on the Jays at the current price given the fact that I am very stubborn and would not be able to settle for these odds given that they were so much higher a week ago. Its a good habit to have, never chase big moves because you do not want to be left behind.
The Blue Jays will continue to win, and I believe we will see their pennant odds touch +500 before we progress deeper into the season.
riding +2500 after the slow start cheeyeeah