This tournament was lined up for a Mexico/USA final. Everyone wanted it: The fans, the players (of those two teams. I can’t speak for the other countries), and most certainly the hosts. Its hard to draw interest in a competition like this without the big-name players progressing deep into the elimination rounds. Amid their controversial advancement against Costa Rica in the quarterfinals, the Mexican side received two more answered prayers to advanced past a ten-manned Panama squad.
Should we be suspicious?
The Match
Mexico closed as a -150 favorite in Wednesday’s quarterfinal against Panama. Its safe to say that they were the clear darling of the public, given their perception entering the tournament. Experienced advantage players were quick to recognize that this Mexican squad were clearly fraudulent, rarely exhibiting a level of play that could justify their opening or closing odds. The one exception to this was their match against Cuba, where they were fortunate enough to play against their reserve players as their more experienced players were kept from the match due to Visa issues. I think I can cover a -3.5 spread against a bunch of pool boys. I’ll get back to you on that.
The Red Card
Mexico started the match in a dull trance. They were quickly propped up by Panama’s Tejada, who received a red-card for elbowing and kicking the referee. A lack of class and discipline made it seem like Mexico would surely advance now that the lonesome underdog were to play a man short. Panama opened the scoring at 56′, and it appeared as though that would be the only goal of the match. Mexico were not at all interested in finding the back of the net, until the referee forced them to take a shot from the penalty spot at 90+9′.
The First Penalty
Lets be honest, its in everyone’s best interest to have Mexico in the finals. Its going to be hard enough to generate interest with Jamaica defeating the host-nation USA 2-1 in the earlier match. If both powerhouses (perhaps with quotations around that word based on the way Mexico have played thus far) were to be eliminated in the semi-finals, that would not fair well for ticket sales and TV ratings. Panama vs. Jamaica? Sorry, I just checked my schedule and I am busy watching re-runs of the latest Philadelphia Phillies/New York Mets game. Its a real thriller, I think they actually scored a run in this one!
The penalty kick was taken at 90+9′ which makes anybodies matchfixing radar start to fire off loud incomprehensible noises. To be fair, the penalty itself was awarded much earlier. Lets take a look at the play to see the magnitude of the offense at the 89′ mark:
The Panama defender fell on the ball. Its a very tough spot for the referee, as this call has gone both ways in the past. Its not a clear-cut foul in the box, and thus an argument can be made for both sides. Despite the commentators claims that this was a very harsh penalty, I believe it is a fair call for the referee to make. It should be chalked down as an unlucky break for Panama.
The Second Penalty
The second penalty came towards the end of the first period of extra time. The Mexican striker was sandwiched between two players inside of the box leading to the spot-kick. Here is a video of the play:
This call is much easier for the referee to make without much scrutiny. Both Panamanian players take away a scoring chance inside of the area through contact.
The Verdict
I know everyone wants me to matchfix monger, as that appears to be the public consensus of what happened today. While you may be able to make the claim that the referee was a bit harsh on the first penalty, its not anything out of the ordinary. I have to be honest in each article I write for this section of the website, so I would like to squash all thoughts of suspicious behavior immediately.
There is roughly a 0% chance that this match was fixed for betting purposes. Mexico have been underwhelming all tournament following their beat-down of a Cuba squad that was missing all of its significant pieces. Apart from the two penalties, they generated zero prime scoring chances. As stated earlier, most sportsbettors who have an idea picked up on this early, and were on the right-side of the match anyways. Even playing down a man the entire contest, Panama were the better side by leagues.
You can make a case that the referee was a tad too harsh on the first penalty, but its a defensive mistake Panama cannot afford to make that late in the match. Its very likely to take away a scoring chance from the nearby Mexican striker, and thus a penalty will be awarded more times than not.
Mexico’s path to the Gold Cup finals has attracted a lot of controversy. Most of which has been warranted, but not today.