With the Gold Cup final just hours away, lets take a look at some of the betting lines and props available for the big game. We will also attempt to identify value in order to decide what we should be betting on. In order to provide fair odds that will give us an accurate representation of the market lines, we will be using data from Bet365. This sportsbook takes a significant amount of soccer action, and have high limits on nearly every prop.
Game Perception
Before we dive into the odds, we need to take a moment to think about how this game is being perceived. Mexico came into the tournament as one of the big two teams expected to go the distance and win it all. Following their 6-0 execution of Cuba in the first game, they have been pretty terrible. No offensive creativity, no motivation to play a defensively sound game. This has become very apparent in each game leading up to the final, including their match against Panama where they did not lead until their second penalty (which came in extra time). Its also worth noting that the game against Cuba came with the luxury of dodging all of their best players who were tied up in a Visa conflict. They would have won anyways, but it would have likely meant that they would have gone the entire tournament without covering the spread. Thats normally a good indication that you are a bit overrated.
People have been betting on Mexico a lot. They always seem like a tempting option, and thus they have disappointed a ton of people so far. Mexico’s perception will be at an all-time low heading into the finals, which is something to consider when attempting to determine the magnitude of the difference between the true and perceived odds of this match.
Main Lines
The standard line for this game is currently sitting at Mexico (-110), Draw (+230), and Jamaica (+320). This is the lowest the Mexican side have been all tournament. This is a combination of the fact that its the finals (where both teams are going to be playing a more defensive game, which increases the probability of a draw, and also favors the underdog from a percentage standpoint), along with how frequently Mexico have disappointed bettors in the tournament. When you are dealing with a smaller tournament like the Gold Cup, the people watching the Finals are generally the people who have been following along all tournament. Those who bet on the games have not forgotten how often Mexico have disappointed them.
The Mexican side are -275 to lift the trophy, while Jamaica are +210. Alternatively, you can take the underdogs on the double-chance line (corresponding to a +0.5 spread) to either win or draw in regulation. Through understanding the way the tournament has progressed, there is partial value taking Mexico to win at -110. I project the line will close around -135 at kick-off, with true-odds sitting between -145 and -155. The image of an overrated team always increases a team’s betting value once the general public has become aware of it.