It has been a while since I have posted a pick on Frostbet. I am working my way to being a more active contributor. We picked up a win in our last appearance, bringing my record on this site to 1-1-0 for a complete break-even of +/- 0 units. I have two MLB unders that I would like to share with everyone.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds (BEST BET)
Our play on this game will be the under 8 at -115. This is our best bet for today. I will be risking $2,300 to profit $2,000 (2.3 units / 2.0 units). I have taken the line from BetOnline.
This is a very confident play. For anyone who has followed me on Twitter for a while, you will know that my plays are rarely higher than 1-unit. I made an exception to that earlier this week when we picked up a 3-unit win on Tampa Bay. That required two 9th-inning runs which was a little too-close (I actually went to sleep out of frustration early, and did not check the score for an entire day. Seriously, I am not even kidding, look at my Tweet history…)
The new acquisitions to the Dodgers have not performed well, Wood included. He has conceded at least 3 runs in each of his starts, failing to go very deep in games. Since joining Los Angeles, his ERA has risen from 3.65 to 3.79. Despite giving up many runs, he has not conceded a significant amount of hits. This leads me to believe that Wood is pitching much better than his perception would indicate.
Los Angeles’ bats have been very quiet since getting no-hit by Mike Fiers in Houston over the weekend. The acquisition of Chase Utley made the most expensive team in baseball a lot more expensive. As the season progresses, I believe LA’s offense will improve to the form they displayed earlier this season, including Utley. Does that take away from some of the value on tonight’s under? Sure. But I have not mentioned the pitcher he is opposing.
I always love backing a guy who is pitching in his first few starts, especially for a team that is out of contention. The advantage is more or less in the favor of the pitcher. Lamb has conceded 5 (8 hits) and 3 (9 hits) runs in his first two starts, respectively. One of those was against the very same Dodgers that he faces tonight. It is meaningless to try to take information from a small sample size, and I would make a fool out of myself if I did. All I know is that Lamb pitched much better than the results of the first two starts would suggest.
I believe the true total of this game should be 6.5, with a -120 price to the over. Do to the significant margin between my true-spread, and the perceived odds set by the sportsbook, I have elected to make this a two-unit play.
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers
Our second play of the day will be the under 9 at -115. I will be risking $1,115 to profit $1,000 (1.15 units / 1.00 units). I have taken the line from BetOnline.
I would venture to assume that no one in their right mind wants to bet the under on this game. The total has jumped up an entire run over the past hour. I waited on it as long as I possibly could, but for the sake of the article I need to get it out on time. That is one of the struggles of providing profitable gambling advice, you get handcuffed sometimes.
Both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Texas Rangers have been red hot. For some reason no one seems to want to talk about the fact that the Rangers have snuck into a playoff position. Someone needs to mention it… seriously.
Buehrle had his shortest start of the season last outing, where he only lasted 16 outs against the Angels.
Although being quiet about it, Buehrle has admitted that he had been struggling with a minor injury. This information was released when his start against the Athletics was swapped with Dickey, who has no problem going on days with short-rest. As well as getting a day off yesterday, the short outing adds a ton of value to supporting the Blue Jays’ pitcher, either through the under or a side. When an older pitcher concedes a lot of runs, people believe regression is finally about to hit hard. On top of this, the short outing could potentially have given Mark enough time to recover from his shoulder issue. I believe he will put up another great start tonight.
As for Holland, he looked brilliant in his return from injury. You can be sure that the Rangers do not want to force anything, so he will likely not be seen deep into the seventh inning if all things go right. After crushing the Detroit Tigers in the prior series, their above-average bullpen is well-rested to take the baton. I have the true total for this game set at 7.5, with a -125 price to the over. It was a tough decision to keep it a one-unit play, but in the end there is a smaller confidence here than with the other under, so I believe this is the best way to spread it out.